News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum are both recovering from the early-summer slumps that enveloped the crypto market. Get your market update from $btc market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/kgPJfJKptS https://t.co/hII11U0POd
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.90%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.15%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Y0B0I5qE0y
  • $USD still sticking to the range. I'd be surprised if this holds until #NFP on Friday. But at the least there's some definition to work off of $DXY https://t.co/kHZnEFP1AX https://t.co/jkE2gugZpL
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.43% Gold: -0.18% Oil - US Crude: -0.90% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/zbfas5ZeLn
  • SEC Chair Gensler: - SEC will take powers "as far as they go" when regulating crypto - I am looking forward to reviewing filings for Bitcoin ETFs
  • SEC Chair Gensler: - We don't have enough investor protection in crypto - Crypto trading platforms require compliance with securities law
  • $ES slingshot right back to 4400, now testing underside of tl $SPX $SPY https://t.co/C8MKSlhDYU https://t.co/afOW3tDMko
  • SEC Chair Gensler: - Crypto trading, lending, and decentralized finance platforms should be top priority for oversight - Stock tokens, stable value tokens backed by securities and all virtual products providing exposure to underlying securities fall under SEC oversight
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.55% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.36% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.20% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.12% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.04% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/p4hWvfg6jr
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.53% US 500: 0.50% France 40: 0.24% Germany 30: 0.17% FTSE 100: 0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/0kcXNlAb2W
US Dollar Unable to Rally Even as Risk Appetite Erodes

US Dollar Unable to Rally Even as Risk Appetite Erodes

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- The US Dollar isn't fulfilling the role as safe haven, trading sideways to lower in recent days as US equity markets come under pressure thanks to skepticism over the US-China trade war de-escalation.

- Economic data due out today will shape expectations for the November US Nonfarm Payrolls report due out tomorrow.

- Retail traders are still mostly short the US Dollar, but positioning is shifting in a manner that suggests sentiment may flip soon.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the US Dollar? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) continues to falter in its role as a safe have currency, failing to generate any upside momentum despite a sharp drop in US equity markets in recent days (futures are pointing lower again). The Dow is off of its yearly high by -7%; the S&P 500 by -8%; and the NASDAQ by -12%. Thus far in Q4'18, US stocks are having their worst quarter in seven years.

Whatever signs of detente in the US-China trade war following the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina have seemingly gone up in smoke over the past 24-hours following the arrest of Huawai CFO Meng Wanzhou in Canada. While US media coverage has been relatively low key, this is decidely not a low key issue in China (the equivalent would be if an Apple executive was arrested). This may be an attempt by the Trump administration to acquire another negotiating chip, but it hasn't sat well; traders are rightfully concerned

As US Treasury yields pullback amid the demand for less risky assets, two winners have started to emerge in the vacuum of the US Dollar's lacking performance: Gold and the Japanese Yen. For Gold, the drop in nominal yields with no change in inflation data means real yields are falling; falling real yields tend to be good for Gold prices. The move back through 1236.37 on Tuesday could be what's needed to signal the turn; we'll look for confirmation through the end of the week.

Gold Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (July to December 2018) (Chart 1)

US Dollar Unable to Rally Even as Risk Appetite Erodes

For the Japanese Yen, the combination of weakening global risk appetite, softer US Treasury yields, and a Federal Reserve that looks ready to back off its hawkish policy posture, is starting to pave a more bullish path looking ahead. As USD/JPY looks to break lower out of its symmetrical triangle, pairs like CAD/JPY (breaking its uptrend from March) shouldn't be dismissed either.

DXY Index Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (June to December 2018) (Chart 2)

US Dollar Unable to Rally Even as Risk Appetite Erodes

For now, the DXY Index is still sitting on the precipice of a potentially larger decline; its uptrend from the September, October, and November swing lows continues to be tested. The break in the three-month trend is particularly important when viewed in the context of the failed run-up to fresh yearly highs; a truncated top often speaks to a turn developing. Both daily MACD and Slow Stochastics are gliding lower, albeit not quite yet in bearish territory yet. We maintain that the DXY Index needs to clear out the mid-November swing low at 96.04 to offer a confirmation signal for a top.

Read more: DXY Index on the Edge Ahead of Quieter Trading Day

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES