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EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Losing Uptrends from January Lows

EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Losing Uptrends from January Lows

2015-02-20 11:56:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Talking Points:

- Both EURJPY and EURUSD primed to lose uptrends from January.

- GBPUSD bullish interpretation skewed by rising wedge.

- See the February Forex Seasonality report and the implications for the majors.

In several EUR-crosses it appears that a moment of importance is arriving, be it today or early next week. In EURJPY and EURUSD in particular, recent consolidations that triangulated over the past few days look ready to shift lower, having started the process of losing their respective uptrends from the late-January (pre-Greek election) lows.

Caution is warranted, however, as these aren't exactly 'clean' technicals. The overhang of Greece-related headlines means that these patterns could be quickly invalidated if a financing solution emerges from today's Eurogroup Working Group meeting. (What a technician would tell you, is that price leads, and that the erosion of triangle support may be hinting at the market beginning to price a negative outcome.)

Elsewhere, our previously bullish interpretation of GBPUSD after its breakout from its January range may be in question. Price has withered in its rally in the second half of the week, and the truncated top puts a bearish rising wedge (as seen on lower timeframes, H4 and under) potentially into play.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPUSD, and USDOLLAR.

Read more: USDOLLAR Back in Pre-FOMC Range - Will Greece Deal Stoke EUR/USD?

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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