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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Four-Week Rally Vulnerable

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Four-Week Rally Vulnerable

2019-08-12 18:08:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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The Canadian Dollar was down for the fourth-consecutive week against the US Dollar with USD/CAD rallying nearly 2.5% off long-term confluence support at the yearly low. The recovery may be vulnerable near-term heading into key confluence resistance and we’re looking for guidance off this pivot zone this week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly price chart. Review my latestWeekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie price setup and more.

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Loonie Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Loonie Price Chart - USD/CAD Weekly - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Notes: USD/CAD rebounded from a critical weekly support zone last month with the advance failing just pips ahead of initial resistance targets- a high registered at 1.3345. The pullback now covers a well-define monthly opening-range with price trading just above the objective August open at 1.3190. Note that price remains within the confines of a modified descending pitchfork formation extending off the 2018 high - USD/CAD failed to mark weekly close above the median-line of this slope with momentum holding just below 50.

Key resistance stands at the 61.8% retracement of the May decline / 2019 high-week close at 1.3355/70 backed by the trendline confluence around ~1.3430s- a weekly close above this level would be needed to suggest a larger price reversal is underway. Key support steady at 1.3052 backed by 1.2972.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: USD/CAD turning just pips from resistance on the back of a four-week advance and the long-bias may be vulnerable here near-term. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – beware of possible topside exhaustion here. Look for downside failure ahead of the yearly low-week close (1.3058) IF price is indeed going to stretch higher – ultimately a topside breach / close above the upper parallels (~1.35) would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month. I’ll publish an updated Loonie Price Outlook once we get further clarity in near-term USD/CAD price action.

Loonie Trader Sentiment (USD/CAD)

Loonie Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -1.43 (41.1% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Traders have remained net-short since July 23rd; price has moved 0.8% higher since then
  • Long positions are 24.4% higher than yesterday and 8.8% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 2.4% higher than yesterday and 4.9% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday & compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD/CAD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

See how shifts in Loonie retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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