News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The market’s preferred ‘fear indicator’ shows a persistent uncertainty around the near future. What can our current conditions and history tell us what to expect from the #VIX through the final two months of the year?https://t.co/jlhcFhH4sI https://t.co/zIrEjxqymJ
  • #Stock market performance is considered an important predictor of the economic outlook. What else can it be used to project? https://t.co/ViTMl19TW3 #Elections2020 https://t.co/methLCaBho
  • What are some monetary policies that could affect Gold this quarter? Get your Gold free forecast here: https://t.co/b9XwwYS9uJ https://t.co/8OIZVJnaD6
  • A #Euro reversal off technical downtrend resistance now risks a larger correction in price. Here are the levels that matter on the $EURUSD weekly chart. Get your #currencies update from @MBForex here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/10/31/Euro-Technical-Outlook-EURUSD-Breakdown-Aims-For-Multi-month-Lows.html?QPID=30472&CHID=9 https://t.co/iVhmCXi9EG
  • We are days away from the US Presidential election and the markets are caught in the vortex. A contested outcome would raise serious volatility for the markets whereas a decisive outcome seems to support bullish $SPX and Dollar views from the market rank. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/10/31/SP-500-and-Dollar-Forecast-Leads-Global-Markets-with-Elections-Expectations-.html https://t.co/JnJbyu6TRT
  • The future implications of the #Elections2020 may influence $AUDUSD following the #RBA and #Fed rate decisions as Congress struggles to pass another round of fiscal stimulus. Get your #currencies update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/soPu0Wefz2 https://t.co/UWsERr2AYh
  • Gold prices declined in the aftermath of bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced. $XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #Elections2020. Get your #metals update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/gWOxdqk8OL https://t.co/gBMgF0YNjH
  • USD awakens, placing GBP/USD on the backfoot, while EUR/GBP cracks 0.90. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/fndMQJLul8 https://t.co/elz5gNAKrB
  • What are some factors impacting Euro’s forecast this quarter? Get your free forecast here: https://t.co/kpBYVz31Bd https://t.co/7EzMPg9Kqg
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/DjMdgL5x19
Aussie Price Outlook: Is the Australian Dollar Recovery Real?

Aussie Price Outlook: Is the Australian Dollar Recovery Real?

2019-08-08 15:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

The Australian Dollar reversed sharply against the US Dollar yesterday after failing to break confluence support with the subsequent recovery now targeting initial resistance targets. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD charts heading into the close of the week. Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this oil price setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Aussie Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Aussie Price Chart - AUD/USD Daily - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Outlook

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my latest AUD/USD Weekly Price Outlook we noted that Aussie had, “reversed from confluence downtrend resistance last week and leaves AUD/USD at risk for steeper losses. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce short exposure / lower protective stops on a move into channel support.” Price probed through confluence support at the lower parallel at 6733/45 yesterday before reversing sharply to close back above.

The broader short-bias is vulnerable near-term while above this threshold with daily resistance eyed close by at the 38.2% retracement / 2016 low at 6828/32 and the monthly open / 2016 low-week close at 6845/55- ultimately a breach above 6910 would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered yesterday. A break / close below 6733 would b needed to mark resumption with such a scenario once shifting the focus back to the lows at 6677 and beyond.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Aussie Price Chart – AUD/USD 120min

Aussie Price Chart - AUD/USD 120min - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Outlook

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: A closer look at AUD/USD price action shows Aussie testing confluence support at the lower parallel with a false break giving way to a breach above this tight embedded descending channel formation extending off the July highs. The advance is now testing a breach of the weekly opening-range – a topside break would keep the breakout trade viable targeting 6828/32 backed by 6845/55. A breach above the median-line would be needed to fuel the next leg higher. Interim support & near-term bullish invalidation now back at 6733/45.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

Bottom line: Aussie rebounded off big support this week and we’re looking for a reaction on a stretch higher into resistance for guidance. From at trading standpoint, look for exhaustion on a pullback while above 6745 for possible entries with a breach above 6855 needed to suggest a larger recovery is underway. IF price holds a test of the median-line on push higher, look for support ahead of the weekly open at 6792 for the Aussie advance to remain viable.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Aussie Trader Sentiment

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment - Aussie Price Chart - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +3.25 (76.5% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since July 19th; price has moved 3.6% lower since then
  • Long positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and 2.4% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 16.4% higher than yesterday and 1.0% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. From a sentiment standpoint, the recent changes in positioning warn that the current AUD/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant Australia / US Data Releases

AUD/USD Economic Calendar - Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES