News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/gaYbbaTnpb
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/H19vRDCpUJ https://t.co/HCvzbjEkr6
  • Get our analysts’ view on the key fundamentals for indices in Q2. Download now. https://t.co/Etdyanp76f https://t.co/n2wxfyMsJt
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/5KaUvfGM4I
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/9Bjkh5413e
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/FqAsp91Gia
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/cKOUmtj7Dj
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/TnL91f7sl7
  • Human error in the forex market is common and often leads to familiar trading mistakes. These trading mistakes crop up particularly with novice traders on a regular basis. Learn about the top ten trading mistakes and how you can avoid them here: https://t.co/i8E2AXtzF3 https://t.co/cDcjl3Ue09
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/KWOX5wSipe
Euro Price Chart: EUR/USD Reverses Course Post-ECB – Trade Levels

Euro Price Chart: EUR/USD Reverses Course Post-ECB – Trade Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro prices collapsed to fresh yearly lows against the US Dollar today before reversing sharply higher on the back to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. The recovery is now testing a key resistance pivot and the focus will be on the weekly close in relation to this critical zone. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD charts this week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro trade setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Daily - Technical Outlook

Technical Outlook: In my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook we noted that the, “focus is on a reaction off this threshold with the bears at risk while above the 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. A break / weekly close below would be needed to keep the short-bias viable targeting 1.1107 and former channel resistance, currently around ~1.1050.” EUR/USD crashed through this support zone and the monthly opening-range lows early in the week with price registering a low at 1.1101 before reversing sharply higher post-ECB. A daily close at these levels would mark an outside-day reversal off fresh yearly lows – watch today’s close.

Initial resistance is back at former support at 1.1182/86 with a breach / close above 1.1220 needed to alleviate further downside pressure near-term. Ultimately a close below 1.1107 is needed to mark resumption of the broader down trend- such a scenario targeting the lower parallel, currently around ~1.1060.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 120min

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min - Technical Outlook

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within the confines of an embedded descending pitchfork formation extending off the late-month highs. Note that price turned just pips from the lower parallel today on building divergence. The immediate focus is on near-term resistance here at 1.1182/86 backed closely by the Friday low / trendline confluence at ~1.1203 and the 38.2% retracement of the June decline at 1.1220 (near-term bearish invalidation). Initial support rests at the yearly low close at 1.1129 backed by 1.1107.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

Bottom line: Euro has broken below a key support zone with the decline already rebounding off initial targets at 1.1107. Watch the weekly close- a break back above 1.1186 would suggest a more significant low was set today. From a trading standpoint, the risk does remain lower IF we close the week within this formation- I’ll be on the lookout for possible downside exhaustion on a pullback towards the yearly close low at 1.1129. Keep in mind we have the FOMC & US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on tap next week.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +3.15 (75.9% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since July 1st; price has moved 1.9% lower since then
  • The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since March 15th; EURUSD was near 1.1323
  • Long positions are 10.1% higher than yesterday and 20.5% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 13.0% lower than yesterday and 27.8% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant Euro / US Data Releases

Euro / US Economic Calendar- Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES