Euro Weekly Price Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Eyes Yearly Open into Q3
What's on this page
- Weekly technicals on EUR/USD- Breakout testing key resistance targets into close of June / 2Q
- Check out our 2019 projections in our Free DailyFX US Euro Trading Forecasts
- Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
The Euro is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar since the start of the week with price holding just below yearly Fibonacci resistance into the close of the month / quarter. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro setup and more.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Euro Weekly
Notes: In my last EUR/USD Weekly Price Outlook our ‘bottom line’ noted that, “Euro held long-term slope support for over two months with the breach above channel resistance this week shifting the focus back to the long-side as we head deeper into June trade.” The rally extended into initial weekly resistance targets this week at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1393 with more significant resistance is eyed just higher at the 2019 open at 1.1445- risk for near-term exhaustion heading into these levels. Critical support remains at 1.1187 with a break / close below 1.1107 needed to suggest a larger breakdown is underway.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
Bottom line: The Euro breakout is testing initial resistance targets here around 1.14 and while the broader focus remains higher, the advance is vulnerable near-term heading into the yearly open- Watch the weekly / monthly close tomorrow. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Be on the lookout for topside exhaustion here if price fails to close above- ultimately, we’ll favor fading weakness while above 1.1270 targeting a test of 1.1445.Review my latest EUR/USD Technical Outlook for a closer look at the near-term Loonie trading levels.
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EUR/USD Trader Sentiment
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.5 (40.1% of traders are long) – bullish reading
- Traders have remained net-short since June 20th; price has moved 0.6% higher since then
- Long positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 9.2% lower from last week
- Short positions are 1.9% higher than yesterday and 39.4% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in Euro retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!
Key Euro / US Data Releases
Previous Weekly Technical Charts
- Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
- Crude Oil (WTI)
- US Dollar (DXY)
- Gold (XAU/USD)
- Kiwi (NZD/USD)
- Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
- Aussie (AUD/USD)
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.