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Euro Weekly Price Outlook: EUR/USD Coils - Breakout Pending

Euro Weekly Price Outlook: EUR/USD Coils - Breakout Pending

Michael Boutros, Strategist

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Euro is down nearly 0.5% against the US Dollar this week with the recent recovery in price turning from long-term slope resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Weekly

Notes: In my previous EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook we highlighted a critical support confluence at the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 advance around 1.1187 - Euro has continued to respect this threshold on for the past two-months with the recent price recovery turning just ahead of confluence resistance this week. Note that a multi-month RSI support trigger is in play as we head into the close of the week.

Confluence resistance stands with the 200-week moving average around ~1.1338 – note that a pair of trendlines from 2018 highs also converges on this zone and further highlight the technical significance of this threshold. A breach / close above is needed to shift the focus higher targeting yearly open resistance at 1.1445 and the 52-week moving average at ~1.15. Weekly support remains at 1.1886 with a break below the 2017 pitchfork support around 1.1130s needed to validate a larger break of the multi-year uptrend formation in Euro.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Euro remains within the confines of a critical range between key technical confluences art 1.1186 – 1.1337 and we’re looking for the break for guidance. From a trading standpoint, the expect sideways to lower price-action near-term towards the lower bounds– ultimately, we’re only targeting levels within this range until we clear this zone. I’ll publish and updated EUR/USD Price Outlook once we get further clarity in near-term price action.

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EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment - Euro vs US Dollar Price Chart
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.48 (59.7% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 9.7% higher than yesterday but 7.5% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 21.4% lower than yesterday and 12.3% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Relevant Euro / US Economic Data Releases

EUR/USD Economic Calendar- Euro / US Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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