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NZD/USD Technical Price Outlook: Kiwi Consolidation Narrows

NZD/USD Technical Price Outlook: Kiwi Consolidation Narrows

2019-02-28 18:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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The New Zealand Dollar broke below the weekly opening-range low after turning from range resistance yesterday and remains at risk for further losses against the US Dollar heading into the March open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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NZD/USD Daily Price Chart

NZD/USD Price Chart - New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar Daily

Technical Outlook: In my latest NZD/USD Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that Kiwi had, “carved out an even clearer range between 6707-6941 and the focus heading into the close of the month is on a break of this range.” Price posted a reversal candle off the yearly high-day close at 6890 yesterday with momentum failing ahead of the 60-threshold (typically bearish).

Daily support is eyed at the confluence of the 100 & 200-day moving averages at 6750/56 backed by the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range / 2018 trendline support at ~6722 (area of interest for possible exhaustion / long entries IF reached). A close below 6700 would validate a break of the 2019 consolidation range with such a scenario exposing 6633. Key resistance / broader bearish invalidation steady at 6922/31.

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NZD/USD 120min Price Chart

NZD/USD Price Chart - New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar 120min

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Kiwi turning rom the median-line of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly lows with an embedded descending formation keeping the focus lower while below 6861. Initial resistance stands at 6813 with near-term confluence support yeed at 6785/90- a break below this level is needed to keep the short-bias viable targeting subsequent objectives at 6750/56 and 6722.

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Bottom line:NZD/USD has turned from range resistance with the decline now targeting near-term confluence support. From a trading standpoint, we’re looking for a reaction on move lower towards the lower parallel with a break below needed to keep immediate focus lower. I’ll favor fading strength while below 6843 targeting a downside break – ultimately, be on the lookout for exhaustion on a move towards 6700 IF reached.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.12 (52.9% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are6.9% lower than yesterday and 2.2% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 11.6% lower than yesterday and 13.2% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed NZD/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in NZD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Relevant NZD/USD Data Releases

NZD/USD - New Zealand / US Economic Data Releases

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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