We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar tend to rise with stocks. They have recently fallen despite gains in the #SP500. What does this mean for $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD ahead? #AUD #NZD #RBA #RBNZ - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/01/17/AUDUSD-NZDUSD-Outlook-Looks-Past-Stocks-to-Rate-Cut-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/ddf2fV7Kyl
  • A few snippets from today's commentary. Check out the link below for the full story (via @DailyFX). https://t.co/I31tuq764r https://t.co/x0BaiOFA1P
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/e2YrN3dBrl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UL7hqSD2Ki
  • US Dollar Forecast: $USD Lacking Impetus Ahead of Consumer Sentiment #Forex traders shift focus away from US-China trade deal headlines - perhaps toward the monthly release of #ConsumerSentiment data for volatility and clues on the Greenback's next move https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2020/01/16/us-dollar-forecast-usd-lacking-impetus-ahead-of-consumer-sentiment.html
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kxcb9EtIWb
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.45% France 40: 0.26% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/I5YIsKQAog
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV), Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.0% Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
  • The $JPY has weakened as a bounce-back in risk appetite saps haven-asset demand. However, the old uptrend line still provides clear resistance. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX HERE:https://t.co/IMhgQ9jbF9 https://t.co/I7087olftk
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
Gold Price Technical Outlook: Bulls Pause After $1250 Test

Gold Price Technical Outlook: Bulls Pause After $1250 Test

2018-12-12 16:00:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

Gold has rallied more than 2% since the start of December with advance testing five-month highs early in the week. The risk for near-term weakness remains but the broader outlook remains constructive with prices carving out a well-defined weekly opening-range just below trendline resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts into the close of the week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Daily Price Chart (XAU/USD)

Gold Daily Price Chart - XAU/USD

Technical Outlook: In our last Gold Technical Outlook we noted that price had broken above a critical resistance barrier in XAU/USD at 1236/38 with our focus higher while above the monthly open at 1221. Gold turned just ahead of the August 2017 low at 1252 with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below and we’re looking for the break for guidance.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Gold 240min Price Chart (XAU/USD)

Gold Price Chart - 240min - XAU/USD

Notes: A closer look at price action sees the advance continuing to trade within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly lows with gold pulling back from the 75% line early in the week. Initial support rests at the highlighted trendline confluence backed by the 1236/38 support pivot.

Bullish invalidation now raised to the 38.2% retracement at 1229 – a weakness beyond this threshold would risk a larger correction towards the lower parallels broader bullish invalidation steady at 1214/15. Topside targets are unchanged with a breach through near-term channel resistance targeting 1252 backed by 1260 and the 50% retracement of the yearly range at 1262.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

Bottom line: Gold is responding to up-slope resistance and while we could see some near-term weakness, the focus remains higher while above within this formation. From a trading standpoint, be on the lookout for price exhaustion while above 1236 with a breach above 1252 needed to fuel the next leg higher in gold. IF we get a deeper pullback, look for more favorable entries towards slope support next week.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold - the ratio stands at +3.53 (77.9% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are0.6% lower than yesterday and 9.8% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 3.0% higher than yesterday and 1.6% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.