We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar tend to rise with stocks. They have recently fallen despite gains in the #SP500. What does this mean for $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD ahead? #AUD #NZD #RBA #RBNZ - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/01/17/AUDUSD-NZDUSD-Outlook-Looks-Past-Stocks-to-Rate-Cut-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/ddf2fV7Kyl
  • A few snippets from today's commentary. Check out the link below for the full story (via @DailyFX). https://t.co/I31tuq764r https://t.co/x0BaiOFA1P
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/e2YrN3dBrl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UL7hqSD2Ki
  • US Dollar Forecast: $USD Lacking Impetus Ahead of Consumer Sentiment #Forex traders shift focus away from US-China trade deal headlines - perhaps toward the monthly release of #ConsumerSentiment data for volatility and clues on the Greenback's next move https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2020/01/16/us-dollar-forecast-usd-lacking-impetus-ahead-of-consumer-sentiment.html
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kxcb9EtIWb
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.45% France 40: 0.26% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/I5YIsKQAog
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV), Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.0% Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
  • The $JPY has weakened as a bounce-back in risk appetite saps haven-asset demand. However, the old uptrend line still provides clear resistance. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX HERE:https://t.co/IMhgQ9jbF9 https://t.co/I7087olftk
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
USD/CAD Technical Outlook: Initial Targets for Post-NFP Reversal

USD/CAD Technical Outlook: Initial Targets for Post-NFP Reversal

2018-12-07 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

The US Dollar pared early-week gains today as weak NFPs / strong Canada jobs data fueled a reversal off key resistance in USD/CAD. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts heading into the close of the week.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

USD/CAD Daily Price Chart

Please add a description for the image.

Technical Outlook: In my previous USD/CAD Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that the immediate advance was vulnerable as price approached, “a key resistance zone at 1.3375-1.3435- a region defined by the 50% retracement of the 2016 decline, the June swing highs and the 2017 yearly open.”

USD/CAD registered a high at 1.3445 before reversing sharply with strong Canadian employment data today further accelerating the decline. Note that we’ve been marking ongoing momentum divergence and highlights the risk for deeper losses here near-term. Initial support rests with the October channel with a break below the monthly opening-range low at 1.3160 shifting the focus back towards the slope support confluence / 100-day moving average at 1.3083/90.

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

USD/CAD 240min Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - 240min

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows the pair trading within the confines of the ascending slope series we’ve been tracking in USD/CAD since October and further highlights this week’s reversal off confluence resistance. Initial support now rests at with the lower parallel / 61.8 % retracement at 1.3269 – we’re looking for a reaction here – watch the weekly close.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading!

Bottom line: USD/CAD is testing upslope support here and IF broken, would keep the near-term short-bias in play targeting the monthly range lows and more significant slope support. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short exposure on a drop towards 1.3269 – If price is heading lower, rallies should be capped by the 1.3375/85 resistance zone. I’ll favor fading near-term rallies while below this threshold for now, targeting a move towards the 1.31- handle.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -3.39 (22.8% of traders are long) – bullishreading
  • Traders have remained net-short since October 9th; price has moved 3.9% higher since then
  • Long positions are12.8% lower than yesterday and 34.6% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 19.1% lower than yesterday and 12.7% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant USD/CAD Data Releases

USD/CAD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.