News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.49% Silver: 0.42% Oil - US Crude: -1.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/CqYIho6z47
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.08% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.07% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.04% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.17% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.23% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/GC3sr4bk5B
  • - Recovery in the US is improving - The increase in Covid cases is concerning, but vaccines give optimism for a return to more normal conditions later this year
  • - Fed bond buying is at a pace "unrelated to magnitude of fiscal deficits" - Low Treasury yields show there is strong global demand for stable and liquid investments
  • Fed Chair Powell: - Too low inflation harms American families and businesses - We do not anticipate high inflation, but have the tools to address pressures if they arise #Fed $USD
  • looking forward to this, webinar starts in an hour. Topics on the radar: 1) USD Q2 Weakness 2) Gold brewing bullish potential? 3) Stonks through initial earnings outlays https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/643096611 https://t.co/6YNhrv8E31
  • Please join @JStanleyFX at 13:00 EST/17:00 GMT for a webinar on trading price action. Register here: https://t.co/rFhWzz0pIy https://t.co/glXTOZWi5i
  • 🇷🇺 Unemployment Rate (MAR) Actual: 5.4% Expected: 5.6% Previous: 5.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-20
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.16% FTSE 100: 0.11% France 40: -0.00% Wall Street: -0.90% US 500: -0.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/7h5ZfhUZAv
  • $Gold pull back didn't quite get back to that area of prior resistance. But a couple of confluent fibo levels have come into play 1763-1766 https://t.co/klQZ7R6n1Z https://t.co/vBpKjqgRvd
EUR/USD Weekly Technical Perspective– Euro Defends 2018 Lows

EUR/USD Weekly Technical Perspective– Euro Defends 2018 Lows

Michael Boutros, Strategist

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Euro responded to a key technical support confluence late-last month with the first day of November trade on pace to post the largest single-day advance since late-September. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

Notes: In October’s EUR/USD Weekly Technical Perspective, we examined the threat of further losses for the Euro with our ‘bottom line’ noting that, “A break / close below (1.1498) would invalidate the reversal play with such a scenario targeting the yearly low-week close at 1.1436 backed by the 200-week moving average / slope support at ~1.1330 and the 1.13-handle.” A late-break of the monthly opening-range lows fueled accelerated losses with price registering a low at 1.1302 on the last day of October trade. So was that a final washout?

The jury is still out, but there are some interesting technicals observations to consider. Note that the US Dollar Index (DXY) registered a fresh yearly low this week while EUR/USD did not (neither did GBP/USD for that matter). This divergence in price is often exhibited at major market turns / reversals and increases the threat of price exhaustion. Also note that sentiment has reversed from extremes in net-long positioning not seen since April 2017- which ended up being the origin of the 2017 advance.

While these observations are quite compelling, it doesn’t mean the bulls are out of the woods just yet. A break / weekly close sub-1.13 would leave Euro vulnerable to further losses with such a scenario targeting 61.8% retracement of the 2017 advance as well as the at 1.1186 backed by broader bullish invalidation at the slope confluence near 1.10.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: EUR/USD has responded to long-term uptrend support-confluence at 1.13– a region defined by the November 2016 swing high, the 2018 swing low and the 200-week moving average. Watch the weekly close - a break / close above the August low-week close at 1.1436 would be needed to alleviate some of the pressure here with subsequent resistance eyed at the September high-week reversal close at 1.1603. Broader bearish invalidation is steady at the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1780.

From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops and be on the lookout for signs of exhaustion early in the month. US Non-Farm Payrolls are on tap tomorrow with the Mid-term Elections and the FOMC interest rate decision looming next week. Stay nimble into the monthly open- I’d expect failure rather early in the month if this rebound is just a fake-out. I’ll publish an updated EUR/USD scalp report once we get further clarity on near-term price action.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then-Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.78 (64.1% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since October 1st; price has moved 1.7% lower since then
  • Long positions are9.9% lower than yesterday and 2.4% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. However trader are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Relevant EUR/USD Data Releases

EUR/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar– for the latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES