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EUR/USD Price Outlook: Euro Sell-off Intensifies– Support In View

EUR/USD Price Outlook: Euro Sell-off Intensifies– Support In View

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro broke below October opening-range yesterday and keeps the focus on a late-month low in the single currency. Today’s post-ECB decline is now approaching key support targets and puts the broader short-bias at risk into these levels. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD charts.

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EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

Technical Outlook: In last week’s EUR/USD Price Outlook, our ‘bottom line’ cited that Euro was, “approaching near-term resistance targets which could see prices pullback a bit. From a trading standpoint, look for possible price exhaustion on a rally into 1.1617/27 – the trade remains constructive while above 1.15...” Price registered a high at 1.1622 the following day with the subsequent reversal breaking below the October opening-range lows yesterday.

The move shifts the focus towards key confluence support at 1.1345 where the 2018 low-day close converges on both multi-year upslope & near-term downslope supports. We’re looking for a reaction off this mark with a break / close below risking a larger decline towards the yearly low at 1.13 and the lower parallel / 61.8% retracement of the 2017 advance at 1.1187.

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EUR/USD 120min Price Chart

EUR/USD 120min Price Chart

Notes: A closer look at price action sees EUR/USD trading within the confines of a near-term descending pitchfork formation extending off the mid-month highs with the pair reversing sharply off the median-line today in New York trade. The focus remains on support targets lower at 1.1362/66 and 1.1345 – we’re looking for possible price exhaustion on a move into these levels. Interim resistance stands at 1.1432 with a breach above parallel resistance needed to alleviate further downside pressure.

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Bottom line: The break of the monthly opening-range keeps the risk weighted to the downside in Euro for now with price approaching key support zones just lower. From a trading standpoint, look for a reaction off structural support with the immediate short-bias at risk heading into the lower parallels. Keep in mind we get US 3Q GDP figures tomorrow with the release likely to fuel added volatility in the USD crosses. A weekly close below 1.1345 would be needed to keep the bears firmly in control.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.6 (61.6% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long since October 1st; price has moved 1.8% lower since then
  • Long positions are0.4% higher than yesterday and 27.2% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 12.7% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week andthe combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Relevant EUR/USD Data Releases

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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