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- Crude Oil prices off nearly 5% from the September high- Decline approaching support
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Crude Weekly Chart
Technical Outlook: Crude oil prices broke above channel resistance last month with the rally turning at former trendline support extending off the April 2016 low last week. The focus is on this pullback in price with confluence support eyed 47.43. Key resistance remains at 54-55.
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Crude Daily Chart
Notes: A closer look at price action shows crude prices trading within the confines of a near-term ascending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly lows. Note that the lower parallel converges on the 200-day moving average and former trendline resistance extending off the yearly high around ~49.30/50. A break below that level would be needed to suggest a larger pullback is underway with such a scenario targeting 47.43/70- a region defined by the 50% retracement of the June advance, basic trendline support and the 100-day moving average.
Look for initial resistance at the weekly / monthly open (also the September high-day close) at 51.57. A breach above last week’s highs targets subsequent resistance objectives at 53.94 backed by 54.74-55. Bottom line: prices remain vulnerable near-term for a test of slope support just lower- look for a reaction there with the broader focus still higher while above yearly trendline support.
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- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil- the ratio stands at +1.07 (51.6% of traders are long) – Weak bearishreading
- Long positions are 15.6% higher than yesterday and 38.2% higher from last week
- Short positions are 2.7% lower than yesterday and 22.1% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias.
See how shifts in Crude retail positioning are impacting price trends- Click here to learn more about sentiment!
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com.
