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AUD/USD Rebound to Face Australian GDP- Resistance at the Yearly Open

AUD/USD Rebound to Face Australian GDP- Resistance at the Yearly Open

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUDUSD shorts at risk ahead of Australian GDP release
  • Updated targets & invalidation

AUDUSD 30min

AUD/USD Rebound to Face Australian GDP- Resistance at the Yearly Open

Chart prepared by Michael Boutros

Technical Outlook: Aussie is trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation with the overnight rally failing at the 50-line (red) before pulling back into the median-line extending off the lows. We mapped out these levels in today’s webinar on SB Trade Desk and we’ll be looking for a pullback to offer long-scalp entries. Interim support rests at 7211 backed by the lower median-line parallel and the weekly open at 7175 (near-term bullish invalidation).

Keep in mind the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside and ultimately we would be looking to sell a more meaningful recovery. Interim resistance stands at 7250/53 (200-day moving average) backed by the 2016 yearly open at 7282. A breach above this level is needed to validate near-term reversal with such a scenario targeting 7307 & October high-day close at 7360. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking for a dip into near-term support to fade on the data release. Be mindful of thin liquidity conditions heading into the month close/open. We’ll be continuing to track this pair and other USD setups this week on SB Trade Desk.

Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of SuccessfulTraders” series.

AUD/USD Rebound to Face Australian GDP- Resistance at the Yearly Open
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders remain net long AUDUSD- the ratio stands at +1.66 (62% of traders are long)-bearishreading
  • Yesterday the ratio was +2.01 (67% of open positions were long); Long positions are 9.5% lower than yesterday and 6.4% below levels seen last week
  • 3.1% lower than yesterday and 6.7% above its monthly average
  • Although SSI remains net-long, the recent pullback in open long positions suggests that the immediate short-bias remains at risk heading into the release.

Relevant Data Releases This Week

AUD/USD Rebound to Face Australian GDP- Resistance at the Yearly Open

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.