News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.20% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.00% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/w1pp0s9fSX
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.81%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 65.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/nFlMXsEQor
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/p7l6voNLTR
  • #DJIA futures eyeing a retest of the February record-high (29595.3) after breaking above Falling Wedge resistance A daily close above the January low (28130.2) could signal the resumption of the primary uptrend extending from the March doldrums $DJI #DowJones #WallStreet https://t.co/DKmECFfpGK https://t.co/IBuArQrIJQ
  • @DailyFXTeam Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.32%) S&P 500 (+0.35%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.37%) [delayed] -BBG
  • #Market Snapshot $AUDUSD and $EURUSD drifting from session-highs as the haven-associated $JPY attempts to claw back lost ground. #SP500 futures, #Gold and #crudeoil all moving higher while the #ASX200 struggles to penetrate key resistance at 6,000 https://t.co/07OdgCzeZD
  • Join @DanielGMoss's #Webinar at 10:00 PM ET/2:00 AM GMT for his weekly coverage of trading prep for $AUDUSD in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/wi1qabrtHJ https://t.co/yUfAnqiYEs
  • Dow Jones climbed a second day on fiscal stimulus hopes. All 9 Dow sectors were up. Traders face a quiet calendar day, with the 1st presidential debate closely eyed. The live TV debate will be on air from 9:00 to 10:30am Singapore time on Wednesday. https://t.co/vyVHRqDCMo
  • According to John Hopkins University, Coronavirus deaths globally have surpassed 1 million people
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/7meK4cF0U9
Crude Oil Price Chart Hits at Topping After Sharp 4-Month Rise

Crude Oil Price Chart Hits at Topping After Sharp 4-Month Rise

2020-09-01 06:11:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

Crude oil prices have largely ignored the fireworks in most other corners of the financial markets, with the WTI benchmark drifting in a narrow range. Nevertheless, August capped the largest four-month raise in over 30 years. From here, rising S&P 500 futures seem to flag a risk-on tone. That may contain selling pressure but seems unlikely to produce a lasting rally on its own.

API crude oil inventory data is on tap and will be judged against forecasts calling for a 2.2-million-barrel drawdown to be reported in official EIA statistics due to be released on the following day. Incoming ISM and PMI surveys of US manufacturing activity may also sour the mood if the pace of recovery from the Covid-19 trough appears to be slowing

GOLD STRUGGLING DESPITE SHARP US DOLLAR SELLOFF

Gold prices have been surprisingly staid since last week’s pivotal speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a virtual edition of the Jackson Hole economic symposium. While the speech cemented the US central bank’s unwillingness to expand its unconventional stimulus toolkit for now, it also unveiled an ‘average inflation target’ framework that would allow tightening to be delayed for comparatively longer than before.

Looking at the US Dollar’s precipitous decline in the lead-up to Mr Powell’s speech and thereafter, one might surmise that the markets heard a decisively dovish message. That might have been expected to lift gold. And yet, the metal fell after the Fed Chair spoke (as expected) and has struggled to advance in earnest since. Buoyant risk appetite may explain why.

Non-yielding gold has seemed like an attractive store of value since mid-March as nominal interest rates cratered while the Fed’s aggressive stimulus pushed up inflation expectations, making for a negative real rate of return on cash and government bonds. A strong showing from stocks going into and after Jackson Hole suggests traders may be growing more confident in taking bets further out along the risk curve, making gold’s absence of yield unattractive in relative terms.

Oil Forecast
Oil Forecast
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Get Your Free Oil Forecast
Get My Guide

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices continue to idle at resistance in the 42.40-43.88 area but overall price action is taking the shape of a Rising Wedge chart formation. This may imply bearish consequences, though confirmation on a daily close below the pattern’s floor is yet to materialize. Such a move likely sees support in the 37.10-38.56 zone, and the 34.38-78 inflection region thereafter. Alternatively, a break and hold above resistance probably sets the stage for a test of the $50/bbl figure.

Crude Oil Price Chart Hits at Topping After Sharp 4-Month Rise

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are probing upward from trend line support establishing the rise from mid-March. A daily close above swing-top resistance at 2015.65 looks likely to set the stage for a test of the record high at 2076.58. Alternatively, a daily close below the $1900/oz figure would breach the near-term range floor as well as trend support, speaking to a meaningful downward reversal in the works. A decline toward the $1800/oz mark looks likely to follow in such a scenario.

Crude Oil Price Chart Hits at Topping After Sharp 4-Month Rise

Gold price chart created using TradingView

Gold Forecast
Gold Forecast
Recommended by Ilya Spivak
Get Your Free Gold Forecast
Get My Guide

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Head APAC Strategist for DailyFX

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES