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Palladium Prices Forecast to Fall After Chart Support Break

Palladium Prices Forecast to Fall After Chart Support Break

2019-11-12 01:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • Palladium prices suffer largest two-day decline in over three months
  • Key chart support break hints trend bias now favoring the downside
  • Soft China autos turnover, fading Fed rate cut bets likely weighing

Where will markets end 2019? See our Q4 forecasts for currencies, commodities and stock indexes!

Palladium prices plunged, making good on signs of topping identified two weeks ago. The metal is probing below support at the 1700.00 figure, with confirmation of a break on a daily closing basis opening the door for a retest of the 1604.50-15.50 resistance-turned-support area.

Perhaps most critically, a clean break of uptrend support guiding XPDUSD upward since early August suggests a bearish change of near-term trend is afoot. From here, a turn back above the late-October high of 1823.10 is probably needed to neutralize the downside bias.

Palladium vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Palladium price chart crated with TradingView


Physical demand – particularly from China – has been a leading driver of the palladium price rally. It is used to make catalytic converters for cars. Within that context, it ought to be worrying that the China’s domestic autos inventory-to-sales ratio hit the lowest in nearly two years last month. Put simply, this suggests stockpiles growth is outpacing that of turnover, which bodes ill for palladium demand prospects.

An increasingly acute focus on yield-seeking across global financial markets is another headwind. Diminished prospects for Fed rate cuts have buoyed the US Dollar and understandably undermined the appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets. Precious metals – including, but certainly not limited to palladium – are a case in point. Indeed, silver and gold prices have both slumped to a three-month lows.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


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