We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • After falling more than 1,000 points (-3.1%) on Monday, the #Dow Jones continued lower Tuesday. Get your equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/qxIJQxm793 https://t.co/ySaXghj6MN
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.071 S2: 1.0777 S1: 1.0815 R1: 1.0882 R2: 1.091 R3: 1.0977 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • RT @MarkNewtonCMT: VIX curve showing Spot VIX v 3 month now in backwardation by 8 percentage points- Just one piece of the puzzle, but wor…
  • $USDJPY Daily Pivot Points: S3: 108.29 S2: 109.6 S1: 110.16 R1: 111.46 R2: 112.2 R3: 113.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • The $SPX ended a 92-day trend trading above the 50-day moving average Monday https://t.co/9LCJ9TssGF
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.60% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.47% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.29% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.05% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/LG4HGxYIXO
  • It will be a while until we know the true outcome of this poll (did we see the $SPX top last week or not), but seems the majority for now still say "no" https://t.co/mfPCYUx1wt
  • RT @ballmatthew: Summary of weird: - Bob is 14 months into 36 month extension - Didn't do this during blow-them-away earnings a few weeks a…
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.52% Gold: -1.46% Silver: -3.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/mhWPSlN67M
  • Precious Metals Update: #Gold 1,648.72 (-0.65%), #Aluminum 1,699.00 (-0.85%), and #Copper 5,689.00 (-1.32%) [delayed]
Palladium Vastly Outperformed Gold Prices in 2019. Is it Topping?

Palladium Vastly Outperformed Gold Prices in 2019. Is it Topping?

2019-10-24 04:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

PALLADIUM PRICE OUTLOOK – Talking Points:

  • Palladium prices have tracked strong growth in vehicle exports from China
  • Slowing global growth, festering trade war may undermine demand outlook
  • Technical positioning warns of ebbing momentum that may precede topping

Where will markets end 2019? See our Q4 forecasts for currencies, commodities and stock indexes!

Gold prices tend to command a disproportionate share of the headline space, but it is palladium that has vastly outperformed this year among the precious metals. It is up over 38 percent so far in 2019, a figure more than double that of either gold, silver or platinum.

Physical demand looks to have been a driver of gains for some time. The metal is a key input for the making of catalytic converters used in autos to reduce emissions. Its rise over the past decade has played out alongside vehicle exports from China. They now rank fifth among the country’s top commodities sold abroad.

Palladium price versus China total vehicle exports (5-mo average)

Interestingly, this has continued even as domestic auto sales in China began to slow in the second half of 2016 and started outright shrinking in mid-2018. If external demand were to similarly flounder – amid a global slowdown amplified by a festering US-China trade war, say – palladium may turn lower.

Turning to technical positioning, some very early warning signs might be emerging. Prices pulled back to challenge trend support defining the move upward since early August, with early signs of negative RSI divergence warning that ebbing upside momentum might translate into reversal.

Confirmation of an initial breakdown on a daily close below the 1700.00 figure opens the door to challenge resistance-turned-support in the 1604.50-15.50 area. Pushing further below that might set the stage to challenge a longer-term barrier guiding the advance since August 2018.

Palladium price chart - daily

Palladium price chart crated with TradingView

PALLADIUM TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.