We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • (Technical Outlook) US Dollar Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/IDR Nearing Trend-Defining Support #USD $USDSGD $USDIDR - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2019/10/24/US-Dollar-Forecast-USDSGD-USDIDR-Nearing-Trend-Defining-Support.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/QKRUwqLZlS
  • Recent $USD weakness may give way to the next leg in an almost two-year uptrend as markets stockpile cash despite the Fed’s interest rate cut cycle.Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/CSvCbTCDxc https://t.co/Q6N9JMtH7J
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.09% Silver: 0.07% Oil - US Crude: -0.76% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/2aMDvFlQxf
  • Over the past 30 days, #PLN, #HUF and the #CZK have been the best performing EMEA currencies vs. USD with +3.58%, 2.82% and 2.09% spot returns.
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.08% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.08% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.08% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.00% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/CgxEYwIJwg
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.02%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/bg6hp5gM3n
  • Gold on the brink of another big breakout? $XAU $GC_F $GLD https://t.co/0RRauXBIke
  • Overnight index swaps are pricing in a less than even chance (3.7%) of a rate cut from the Bank of Canada at next week’s interest rate decision #CAD
  • #Gold prices may fall while the US Dollar gains even as economic policies championed by the Trump administration invite inflation. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/4lHhHsby56 $XAUUSD https://t.co/vT0Qqh6gy4
  • RT @TheEconomist: The mood in corporate America is darkening https://t.co/dBrDHdUzm4
Crude Oil Prices Brace for More Trade Talks and Key Drilling Data

Crude Oil Prices Brace for More Trade Talks and Key Drilling Data

2019-10-11 03:30:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Junior Currency Analyst
Share:

Crude Oil Forecast, Trade War –TALKING POINTS

  • Crude oil prices surged on US-China trade war developments
  • Commodity closely watching high-level talks and drilling data
  • US sentiment data may exacerbate wound in gold after FOMC

Learn how to use political-risk analysis in your trading strategy!

Crude oil prices surged along with global equity markets after headlines broke out that the US and China had made progress on trade talks. However, markets were in peril after a series of oscillating headlines left investors dizzy between good news and bad news. Ultimately, however, market mood was left on a relatively high note with Brent closing just shy of three percent higher for the day. Gold prices did not fare well.

The yellow metal closed lower for a second day in a row after positive trade developments cooled the urgency of Fed rate cut bets and subsequently reduced the appeal of holding non-interest-bearing assets. This was amplified after the FOMC minutes revealed officials were split on when to reducing easy, with a few remarking that markets have been over-pricing future easing prospects.

Both gold and crude oil prices will be watching for further negotiations between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US officials. Markets were rejoiced after news broke that the US is entertaining the notion of implementing a currency pact with China as an add-on in a partial trade deal. All eyes will now be on how talks go Friday and how officials from both sides will leave things off before proceeding further – or not.

Baker Hughes drilling data will also be published on Friday with expectations of an average rotary rig count of 847.33, lower than the previous 855 print last week. The number of extractive sites is currently hovering at a two-year low while demand for crude oil continues to decline as part of a broader slowdown in global growth. To quote the recently-appointed IMF Director, the world is experiencing a “synchronized slowdown”.

Crude Oil Prices Forecast

Amid the buoyancy in sentiment, crude oil prices broke above the multi-month congestive range between $57.24/bbl-$59.34/bbl and may now aim to retrace some of their recent losses. Traders may wait to add exposure until more clarity is given on US-China trade talks or Brent breaks higher with follow-through. Having said that, taking a wide perspective supports the notion that crude oil prices may ultimately capitulate in the face of global headwinds.

Crude Oil Prices – Daily Chart

Chart showing crude oil prices

Crude oil prices chart created using TradingView

Gold Prices Forecast

Gold prices are currently trading below the early-September descending resistance channel after the yellow metal attempted to breach it on October 10. As floor and ceiling converge, gold prices may either capitulate and possibly validate the bearish reversal pattern I pointed out this week or may break above resistance. If the latter occurs, traders may re-assess the yellow metal’s price movement before further adding exposure.

Gold Prices – Daily Chart

Chart showing gold prices

Gold prices chart created using TradingView

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.