We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Silver prices have edged their way out of a potential bull flag formation, increasing the potential for more gains; however, the move lacks enthusiasm. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/Q4kQZk4kjo https://t.co/uyTgjq7pV6
  • $AUDUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 0.6801 S2: 0.6832 S1: 0.6845 R1: 0.6876 R2: 0.6894 R3: 0.6925 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • $GBPUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.264 S2: 1.278 S1: 1.2839 R1: 1.2979 R2: 1.306 R3: 1.32 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.32% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.28% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.19% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.13% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/iGzIwGw2DZ
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.27% Silver: 0.13% Oil - US Crude: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/tKWjH8JR4b
  • $USDJPY Daily Pivot Points: S3: 108.09 S2: 108.31 S1: 108.41 R1: 108.63 R2: 108.75 R3: 108.97 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • RT @Mij_Europe: A shorter extension – maybe 2 or 3 weeks - is possible to allow the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to get through the Commons. I…
  • RT @Mij_Europe: So what's going on with the French position on Brexit? Some thoughts after chats. Senior French officials say their positio…
  • Following the recent rise in $CADJPY, signs are beginning to show that the bullish momentum is slowing after the failure to maintain a foothold above the 83.00 handle.Get your CAD/JPY technical analysis from @malkudsi here: https://t.co/UPvJMJN0H4 https://t.co/9gTjVhQO4X
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.30%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/CEhthdynhp
Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Gloomy ECB, US Data Spook Markets

Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Gloomy ECB, US Data Spook Markets

2019-07-25 05:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices dropped, shrugging off EIA inventory statistics
  • Gold prices edged higher as the US Dollar, Treasury yields fell
  • Downbeat ECB, soft US durables data might cool risk appetite

Crude oil prices swung lower, seemingly unimpressed by EIA inventory flow data showing stockpiles shed a hefty 10.8 million barrels last week. While that topped the 4.4-million-barrel drawdown economists projected, analogous API figures foreshadowed a very similar outcome. That seems to have stripped the headline reading of meaningful market-moving potential.

Meanwhile, refined product data hinted at backup down along the supply chain. Gasoline storage lost a mere 226k barrels compared 1.4 million expected and a rise in distillate stocks proved to be nearly two times larger than the baseline forecast. News that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait plan to resume production in the neutral zone between them for the first time in four years likely added to selling pressure.

Gold prices corrected gently higher, retracing the prior session’s losses but stopping short of making any further upside progress. The bounce came against the backdrop of parallel downswings in Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar, which tends to burnish the appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat alternatives epitomized by the yellow metal.

Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Gloomy ECB, US Data Spook Markets

Looking ahead, an ECB monetary policy announcement is widely expected to strike a dovish tone as the central bank ponders slowing global growth. Indeed, priced-in rate cut expectations implied in OIS rates have been creeping higher since mid-June, with markets now all but certain that at least one rate cut is in the cards before the end of the year.

The downbeat rhetoric may unnerve the markets, cooling risk appetite. Soft US durable goods orders figures might compound the sour mood if June’s report echoes the recent trend toward underperformance on economic data flow from the world’s largest economy. Cycle-sensitive crude oil prices may suffer further in this case. Gold may flirt with the upside as yields fall but anti-risk US Dollar buying might cap gains.

Get the latest crude oil and gold forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are trying to make good on topping cues marked by a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern coupled with negative RSI divergence. A daily close below trend line support (now at 1409.54) is probably needed for confirmation. That would expose the July 1 low at 1381.91 next.Alternatively, a push above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1447.89 eyes the 50% level at 1468.27 thereafter.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices remain mired in congestion mode above support at 54.84. A break lower confirmed on a daily closing basis exposes the 49.41-50.60 area next. Alternatively, a push above resistance at 58.19 sets the stage for a retest of the 60.04-84 zone.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.