News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.56%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 71.14%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/slgUxPLCHv
  • The Japanese Yen is attempting to mark a third consecutive weekly advance against the US Dollar with USD/JPY down 0.34% ahead of the New York close on Wednesday. Get your $USDJPY market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/3XJc7NHZGl https://t.co/zoZN5l2FGW
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.27% France 40: 0.23% FTSE 100: 0.05% US 500: -2.83% Wall Street: -2.92% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/tPui0dstvl
  • Gold has slipped a 7-month rising support despite it being a 'risk off' day for the markets (overlay is $SPX). Roles - like the metal representing a haven - are not always linear and dominant https://t.co/hSqu6E9HQv
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN -3.05% #BITCOINCASH +4.24% #ETHEREUM -4.53% #RIPPLE -1.91% #LITECOIN -3.36%
  • Japanese #Yen Outlook: $USDJPY Dives into Key Technical Support Pivot - https://t.co/vzJ2u0MUbS https://t.co/4NE2BirSlY
  • Really glad I’m not the only one who thinks like this https://t.co/kGQ6p4HO61
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.56%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 70.66%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/kYXsXPuSmJ
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -1.32% Silver: -3.74% Oil - US Crude: -5.35% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/1IZV4KJruu
  • More weakness in Eurozone economic data coupled with a surge in COVID-19 cases has seen ECB interest rate cut expectations pulled forward, and the odds of surprise action at the October meeting are non-zero. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/JdP6FXyQXF https://t.co/88FWLMNtTu
Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look to Powell and Trump for Direction

Crude Oil, Gold Prices Look to Powell and Trump for Direction

2018-05-08 06:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices fall from 4-year high as Trump’s Iran decision looms
  • Gold prices mark time with a speech from Fed Chair Powell in focus
  • API inventory flow report, EIA short-term energy outlook due ahead

Crude oil prices touched a four-year high amid worries that the US will abandon a nuclear disarmament deal with Iran, re-imposing sanctions that crimp global supply. A swift reversal followed however after President Trump said a decision on the matter will be revealed at 18:00 GMT today, four days ahead of a deadline on May 12.

The announcement may have spooked short-term buyers reluctant to hold onto skewed exposure as event risk suddenly looms on the horizon. The subsequent profit-taking brought the WTI contract nearly all the way back to where it started for the session. Meanwhile, gold prices marked time as all eyes turned to a much-anticipated speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a joint SNB/IMF event in Zurich, Switzerland.

POWELL, TRUMP IN FOCUS FOR COMMODITY MARKETS

The central bank chief is due to opine on the impact of monetary policy on global financial conditions. That seems especially appropriate as the Fed’s own tightening efforts spill over into higher borrowing costs beyond US borders. Mr Powell seems likely to signal that such knock-on effects will not easily deter stimulus withdrawal, which may boost the US Dollar the expense of commodities at large.

A stronger greenback bodes inherently ill for anti-fiat alternatives epitomized by gold. Crude oil may likewise suffer, although Mr Trump’s decision on Iran may overshadow other considerations in the near term. Weekly inventory flow statistics from API and the monthly short-term energy outlook report from the EIA are in focus on the data front.

See our quarterly gold price forecast to learn what will drive the trend through mid-year!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices stalled at trend line resistance defining the down move from the April 11 high. A daily close above this barrier – now at 1314.47 – paves the way for a retest of former support at 1323.60. Alternatively, push below the support cluster in the 1301-03 area would open the door for a challenge of long-term trend support guiding prices higher since December 2016.

Spot gold daily price chart

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices continue to eye resistance marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 71.24 after taking out the April 19 high at 69.53. A break upward confirmed on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 72.59. Alternatively, a move back below 69.53 puts the range floor at 67.36 back in the spotlight.

WTI crude oil daily price chart

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES