News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here: https://t.co/MZtBh88nOv https://t.co/pAhXFa1al2
  • The inside bar pattern occurs regularly within financial markets. Incorporating the inside bar strategy can enhance a trader's market analysis. Find out how you can use it from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/E3EWOYTYNw https://t.co/aK98CEpfOH
  • Point 3 is not talked about enough. The bureaucratic - dare I say, Leviathan - in most universities is resulting in tuition prices skyrocketing without adding clear value to the students. https://t.co/WNZIORrfAk
  • Think #amzn will gap higher on Monday after Black Friday and the giant move to online shopping?
  • The exponential moving average (EMA) is a derivative of the simple moving average (SMA) indicator. Compared to the SMA, the EMA weighs recent price changes more heavily than later changes in price. Learn how to incorporate the EMA into your strategy here: https://t.co/w48c0xJXSX https://t.co/xFmhA7ZHqU
  • Traders in the Euro have a big decision to make this weekend: if EUR/USD hits 1.20, will it continue to advance, consolidate or fall back? Get your $EURUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/8hAhguZcEA https://t.co/kwtatozp3z
  • The bullish engulfing candle is one of the forex market's most clear-cut price action signals for reversals and continuation. Learn more about this price action trading signal here: https://t.co/Yg6ecRZZNr https://t.co/9SdceNYUEK
  • The bull flag pattern is a great pattern to add to a forex trader's technical arsenal. Explosive moves are often associated with the bull flag. Learn more about the bull flag pattern here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/imv2PnapzH
  • Defensive stocks have proven critically important when navigating stock market volatility. Find out what are the most defensive stocks here:https://t.co/TMcbMALtbw https://t.co/mmldxxEtsc
  • Dollar Index has broken major uptrend support and risks accelerated losses into the December open. Get your $USD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/Txo8l8S1f1 https://t.co/YLVzP95JH8
Gold Price Drop May Resume as US Data Bolsters Fed Optimism

Gold Price Drop May Resume as US Data Bolsters Fed Optimism

2018-05-03 08:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold price pop after FOMC meeting unable to sustain momentum
  • Crude oil prices torn between conflicted supply trend speculation
  • Service-sector ISM data might pressure commodity prices lower

Gold prices attempted a short-lived recovery but failed to sustain momentum yesterday. The metal probed higher as a reserved tone from the Fed cooled hawkish exuberance, as expected. A reversal wasn’t far behind however as traders digested language signaling greater scope for tightening beyond 2018. That steepened the yield curve and sent the US Dollar higher, tarnishing the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives.

Crude oil prices reflected Fed-inspired volatility as well, mirroring moves in gold and the S&P 500. The stock benchmark also popped higher only to swiftly retreat after the FOMC announcement as worries about hawkish overreach hurt sentiment. The magnitude of price swings in the WTI contract was conspicuously more restrained however, with no headway made beyond familiar territory at day’s end.

The muted response might reflect traders’ unwillingness to commit as conflicting asset-specific factors cloud the outlook. On one hand, the possibility that the US may re-impose crippling sanctions on Iran has exerted upward pressure. On the other, swelling inventories are an anchor. EIA reported that US stockpiles unexpectedly added a hefty 6.22 million barrels last week, the most in three months.

SERVICES ISM DATA MAY HURT COMMODITIES

From here, April’s service-sector ISM survey is in focus. An upside surprise echoing recently upbeat US news flow might give the greenback another upward nudge at the expense of commodities. Crude oil may opt against full-scale participation once again however, waiting for fresh news flow to break the deadlock in supply trend speculation.

See our quarterly gold price forecast to learn what will drive the trend through mid-year!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are probing above support-turned-resistance in the 1307.63-08.65 area (3-month range floor, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion) anew. Beyond that, buyers are faced having to retest a recently broken Triangle pattern floor at 1316.54 and a chart inflection point at 1323.60. Alternatively, downside resumption sees the next major support in the 1273.14-82.02 area (38.2% level, trend line form December 2016).

Spot gold daily price chart

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are languishing in a familiar range below the $70/bbl figure. A daily close below support at 67.36 initially opens the door for a retest of former resistance at 66.22. Alternatively, a push above the April 19 high at 69.53 paves the way for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 71.24.

WTI crude oil

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES