News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Although the Fed hawkish bias has caused some reflationary position unwinding and anxiety about the outlook for commodities, the fundamental picture for oil has not changed and remains bullish. Get your market update from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/N5X16b8ljP https://t.co/UA6CfjTLfc
  • A short-term ascending channel is under threat after Bitcoin’s first attempt to break through a stubborn resistance zone failed. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/RbnADE05iu https://t.co/HcrqaKg5F3
  • Is the Eurozone entering into a second debt crisis? Find out here: https://t.co/27Y8gKO0xY https://t.co/qHyg1KpVKH
  • And the Monday Asia trading session has officially begun. A pair to have on your watch list to kick off early trade: $AUDUSD post head-and-shoulders' neckline (and 200-DMA) breakdown https://t.co/iuYqEN5xpv
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here: https://t.co/MZtBh88nOv https://t.co/DIP9cgoSUt
  • Here are the top scheduled event risks on my calendar for the coming week. Global PMIs, a few rate decisions, the Fed's bank stress test results, the Fed's favorite inflation indicator and a run of Fed speak among much more: https://t.co/3jIl4PvHiA
  • I know it is a cognitive bias, but it seems that every time I take a day off, there are significant market moves. Dow's tumbled into a 5th straight session Friday with 10-day correlation to Nasdaq most extreme negative in 4 years https://t.co/V3U6IOAEXz
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EST (12:30GMT) on DailyFX!! - lots to discuss on the back of last week's #Fed Fireworks! https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/l0j9vLrMIp
  • Markets Week Ahead: Gold, Dow, Pound-Dollar, BoE Rate Decision, Fed Risk, PMIs Check out my recap of last week and preview of upcoming event risk, plus all the latest forecasts from the @DailyFX team below. Link to Analysis - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2021/06/20/Markets-Week-Ahead-Gold-Dow-Pound-Dollar-BoE-Rate-Decision-Fed-Risk-PMIs.html $GLD $DJI $GBPUSD #Trading
Gold Prices Flirt with Breakdown, ISM Data Due But FOMC in Focus

Gold Prices Flirt with Breakdown, ISM Data Due But FOMC in Focus

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices back on the defensive as FOMC meeting nears
  • Crude oil prices pop on bets Iran nuclear deal may unravel
  • Manufacturing ISM survey, API inventory data due ahead

Gold prices turned lower anew as speculation about a steepening Fed interest rate hike cycle ahead of the upcoming FOMC policy announcement put the US Dollar back on the offensive. That undercut the appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets and made a familiar impression on the yellow metal, pushing it down to touch the lowest level in over a month.

Crude oil prices briefly shot higher after Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said his country had passed intelligence to the US indicating Iran was secretly developing nuclear weapons in violation of its agreement with the US and a roundup of world powers. Mr Netanyahu’s comments were probably interpreted as signaling that stiff sanctions might be re-imposed, pulling Iranian crude off the market once again.

MANUFACTURING ISM, API INVENTORIES DATA IN FOCUS

Looking ahead, April’s manufacturing ISM survey headlines the economic data docket. It is expected to show that factory-sector activity growth slowed for a second month having set a two-year high in February. US news-flow has firmed relative to forecasts recently, opening the door for an upside surprise. Upbeat cues in analogous Markit Economics PMI statistics bolster the possibility of such an outcome.

A strong showing may stoke bets on a steeper Fed rate hike cycle, adding to the greenback’s gains and punishing gold prices. Crude oil may likewise suffer, brought lower by de-facto selling pressure because prices are denominated in USD terms on global markets. API inventory flow data may cloud transmission however. It will be judged against forecasts calling for a 916.7k build to be reported in official EIA statistics.

See our quarterly gold price forecast to learn what will drive the trend through mid-year!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are hanging by a thread at Triangle chart pattern support. A break below it and the 1307.63-08.65 area (range floor, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion) exposes the 1273.14-81.35 zone (38.2% level, trend lien from December 2016). Alternatively, a turn back above support-turned-resistance at 1323.60 opens the door to retest 1333.42.

Gold Prices Flirt with Breakdown, ISM Data Due But FOMC in Focus

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices remain stuck in a familiar range below the $70/bbl figure. A break of the range floor at 67.36 exposes resistance-turned-support at 66.22. Alternatively, push beyond the 69.53-84 area (April 19 high, 23.6% Fib expansion) targets the 38.2% level at 71.50.

Gold Prices Flirt with Breakdown, ISM Data Due But FOMC in Focus

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES