We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/OjTZOQEytM https://t.co/XE4WK63DEU
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/1oygcFMFNs https://t.co/CS4TCNYsQA
  • The anti-risk Japanese Yen will likely remain glued to market mood during the third quarter, what are some fundamental sources of volatility? Download our JPY trading guide to find out: https://t.co/LhFkbyDCCw https://t.co/dA1gW4cVKt
  • A macro forex trading guide exploring the US-Canada relationship and how to trade the Canadian Dollar through the prism of the Core-Perimeter model. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri and @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/dF51UMcGFC https://t.co/dK1zPozjtT
  • Sterling’s volatility is expected to rise in Q3 as prickly EU/UK trade talks continue against a bleak looking economic backdrop. See our Q3 GDP guide: https://t.co/QzLErDHVhc https://t.co/nxBke8euTF
  • The Core-Perimeter trading model helps traders understand interactions between global economies, helping to trade the assets embedded in these relationships. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/dKRAo00lfA https://t.co/5JzIjUDDx6
  • #CrudeOil price action could consolidate into a broad trading range following a historic Q2 as barriers of technical confluence stand to contain the commodity’s direction. Download our oil #trading guide for the full report: https://t.co/DcjPcVpX5x https://t.co/EJlDquZ9WR
  • It’s unlikely that the #ECB on its own will continue to be able to prevent the Euro from weakening if EU governments continue to argue about policy. Download our #EUR trading guide to find out more: https://t.co/Kjp34DoEzE https://t.co/gtKQa9zXX5
  • The #USD spent the bulk of Q2 in a range after a climactic Q1; and with a series of risk themes continuing to push, combined with an election in November, the door appears open for more vol in USD. Download our USD trading guide here: https://t.co/2Wo7EcwAht https://t.co/BA5dWk4wTt
  • $USD hegemony is at risk thanks to changes in the global economy and the long-term consequences of the US-China trade war. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/OTTEmg76W8
USD/JPY Downtrend Accelerates, VIX Breakout Warns High Volatility

USD/JPY Downtrend Accelerates, VIX Breakout Warns High Volatility

2019-05-07 23:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:

Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points

  • VIX ‘fear gauge’ breaks higher on rising concerns over US-China trade war
  • USD/JPY downtrend accelerates as implied volatility rises across S&P 500
  • AUD/USD now vulnerable with RBA behind us, NZD/USD eyeing RBNZ

Trade all the major global economic data live as it populates in the economic calendar and follow the live coverage for key events listed in the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

FX News Tuesday

The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed against its major counterparts on Tuesday, strengthening alongside a general deterioration in market optimism as anticipated. The downturn in sentiment is likely being fueled by rising fears of a US-China trade war after President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese imports on Monday. This came as a surprise in what until then seemed like good progress in negotiations.

Rising concerns in global markets can be seen reflected in the VIX volatility index. On the chart below, it climbed and closed at 19.32 which is its highest since late January. This follows a break above the falling resistance line from early 2019. A rising VIX reflects higher implied volatility which is derived from options contracts on the S&P 500. It is also commonly known as a ‘fear gauge’.

VIX Daily Chart

USD/JPY Downtrend Accelerates, VIX Breakout Warns High Volatility

Chart Created in TradingView

And rightfully so, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell 1.65% and 1.79% respectively in their worst days since late March. There is still a chance that US-China trade negotiations could end in a deal of some sort by the end of this week. It has been confirmed that China’s key trade negotiator, Liu He, will be visiting Washington alongside a team of delegates come Thursday. But, markets have become more doubtful of a breakthrough.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY thus closed at its lowest since March 26 as its near-term downtrend continued. In the medium-term, the break under the rising trend line from the ‘flash crash’ in early January is a warning sign that we may get to support next around 109.76. If this is taken out with confirmation, which may be the case if trade talks breakdown and refuel global growth slowdown fears, 107.52 could be tested thereafter.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Downtrend Accelerates, VIX Breakout Warns High Volatility

Chart Created in TradingView

Wednesday’s Asia Pacific Trading Session

S&P 500 futures are pointing lower as we head into Wednesday’s Asia Pacific trading session, hinting that weakness in regional equities such as the Nikkei 225 may linger. This would add to the argument that more Yen gains could be in store. Also, with the RBA now behind us, the pro-risk Australian Dollar may focus on sentiment trends as well. As such, selloffs in stocks may add downside pressure towards AUD/USD.

RBNZ Rate Decision, Governor Press Conference Ahead

NZD/USD is eyeing the RBNZ rate decision with markets anticipating a cut in the benchmark lending rate from 1.75% to 1.50%. Yesterday, the RBA surprised with a hold which translated into Aussie strength. However, unlike the RBA, the markets seem to be more confident that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may cut.

According to Bloomberg economist surveys, 14 out of 20 estimates envision a cut. Relative to the RBA, the RBNZ has done a better job at preparing the markets for a cut, especially after recent softer employment and inflation data. Thus, a surprise hold could potentially carry more bullish implications for the New Zealand Dollar compared to what we saw with AUD/USD yesterday.

Join DailyFX Analyst David Cottle as he covers the RBNZ rate decision LIVEand the reaction in the New Zealand Dollar where he willalso be taking a look at what may drive it down the road!

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.