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  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.82% FTSE 100: 0.28% Germany 30: 0.19% US 500: 0.18% Wall Street: -0.02% View the performance of all markets via
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  • USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long USD/JPY for the first time since Jul 20, 2021 09:00 GMT when USD/JPY traded near 109.86. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to USD/JPY weakness.
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  • Gold Prices Climb Ahead of FOMC as Traders Anticipate Status Quo, USD Falls
  • 🇮🇹 Business Confidence (JUL) Actual: 115.7 Expected: 115.4 Previous: 114.8
  • 🇮🇹 Consumer Confidence (JUL) Actual: 116.6 Expected: 115.5 Previous: 115.1
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 94.24%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 73.69%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Business Confidence (JUL) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 115.4 Previous: 114.8
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Consumer Confidence (JUL) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 115.5 Previous: 115.1
S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

Justin McQueen, Analyst
SPX Price Chart

Equity Analysis and News

  • S&P 500 | There is Never Just One Rate Cut
  • DAX | Largest Daily Drop in 2019 on Rising Trade Tensions
Index Performance Chart

Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX

S&P 500 | There is Never Just One Rate Cut

Last week saw the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in over a decade. However, markets were left slightly disappointed with Chair Powell’s rather confusing press conference, highlighting that this is a mid-cycle adjustment. That said, based on previous cycles, there is never just one rate cut and we don’t believe it will be the case this time round as FFR futures price a near certainty that interest rates will be lowered again in September. With the Fed now easing policy amid trade war risks, President Trump was able to quickly take advantage of this by announcing that an additional 10% tariff rate will be placed on $300bln worth of Chinese goods, consequently weighing on risk appetite. A trade deal happening this year is becoming increasingly unlikely as eyes now focus on Beijing and how they will retaliate to the latest escalation.

Fed Target Rate Probabilities Chart

CME FedWatch (Interest Rate Expectations)

S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Dec 2017 – Aug 2019)

S&P 500 Price Chart

DAX | Largest Daily Drop in 2019 on Rising Trade Tensions

With the trade war ceasefire broken, the DAX has posted its largest daily loss in 2019 to close out the week. Focus now turns towards China, in which an inevitable retaliation may well indeed weigh on risk appetite further. Alongside this, with the technical break below trendline support eyes are for a test of 11500.

DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Dec 2017 – Aug 2019)

DAX Price Chart


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--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.