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S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

S&P 500, DAX Fundamental Forecast

2019-08-04 09:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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SPX Price Chart

Equity Analysis and News

  • S&P 500 | There is Never Just One Rate Cut
  • DAX | Largest Daily Drop in 2019 on Rising Trade Tensions
Index Performance Chart

Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX

S&P 500 | There is Never Just One Rate Cut

Last week saw the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in over a decade. However, markets were left slightly disappointed with Chair Powell’s rather confusing press conference, highlighting that this is a mid-cycle adjustment. That said, based on previous cycles, there is never just one rate cut and we don’t believe it will be the case this time round as FFR futures price a near certainty that interest rates will be lowered again in September. With the Fed now easing policy amid trade war risks, President Trump was able to quickly take advantage of this by announcing that an additional 10% tariff rate will be placed on $300bln worth of Chinese goods, consequently weighing on risk appetite. A trade deal happening this year is becoming increasingly unlikely as eyes now focus on Beijing and how they will retaliate to the latest escalation.

Fed Target Rate Probabilities Chart

CME FedWatch (Interest Rate Expectations)

S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Dec 2017 – Aug 2019)

S&P 500 Price Chart

DAX | Largest Daily Drop in 2019 on Rising Trade Tensions

With the trade war ceasefire broken, the DAX has posted its largest daily loss in 2019 to close out the week. Focus now turns towards China, in which an inevitable retaliation may well indeed weigh on risk appetite further. Alongside this, with the technical break below trendline support eyes are for a test of 11500.

DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Dec 2017 – Aug 2019)

DAX Price Chart

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--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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