News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The market’s preferred ‘fear indicator’ shows a persistent uncertainty around the near future. What can our current conditions and history tell us what to expect from the #VIX through the final two months of the year?
  • #Stock market performance is considered an important predictor of the economic outlook. What else can it be used to project? #Elections2020
  • What are some monetary policies that could affect Gold this quarter? Get your Gold free forecast here:
  • A #Euro reversal off technical downtrend resistance now risks a larger correction in price. Here are the levels that matter on the $EURUSD weekly chart. Get your #currencies update from @MBForex here:
  • We are days away from the US Presidential election and the markets are caught in the vortex. A contested outcome would raise serious volatility for the markets whereas a decisive outcome seems to support bullish $SPX and Dollar views from the market rank.
  • The future implications of the #Elections2020 may influence $AUDUSD following the #RBA and #Fed rate decisions as Congress struggles to pass another round of fiscal stimulus. Get your #currencies update from @DavidJSong here:
  • Gold prices declined in the aftermath of bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced. $XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #Elections2020. Get your #metals update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • USD awakens, placing GBP/USD on the backfoot, while EUR/GBP cracks 0.90. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • What are some factors impacting Euro’s forecast this quarter? Get your free forecast here:
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
IMF Strikes Cautionary Tone in Latest Global Financial Stability Report

IMF Strikes Cautionary Tone in Latest Global Financial Stability Report

2019-04-10 22:35:00
Rich Dvorak, Analyst


  • The IMF stated in its most recent Global Financial Stability Report that ‘financial vulnerabilities continue to build’ and have led to ‘elevated medium-term risks’
  • A sharp repricing of risk, intensification of trade tensions, further slowdown in global economic activity, and political shocks are listed as potentially destabilizing catalysts
  • Looking to expand your trading knowledge? Take a look at this free educational guide that discusses the key Traits of Successful Traders

The International Monetary Fund has released its April 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) which timidly assessed major threats currently faced by the global financial system. According to the latest GFSR, financial conditions generally remain accommodative across developed and developing nations but have tightened noticeably since October 2018 when the prior GFSR was published.

Due to persistent accommodative financial conditions, systemic weakness has grown more pronounced. As such, the GFSR warns about elevated risks over the medium-term posed by record-high levels of corporate debt, Eurozone woes, volatile portfolio flows, and lofty real estate prices.


IMF Global Financial Stability Report - Financial Conditions Index Price Chart

Source: International Monetary Fund’s April 2019 Global Financial Stability Report

It is evident that financial conditions have become increasingly tighter since late-2017 despite easing somewhat last quarter subsequent to the sharp contraction experienced at the end of 2018. According to the GFSR, a backdrop of rising downside risks could cause financial conditions to contract sharply and abruptly. Highlighted as potential triggers included violent repricing of risks, escalation of trade tensions, further deterioration of global growth as well as possible political shocks.

Considering the acute rebound in risk assets after the widespread selloff that plagued markets over the fourth quarter last year, the IMF cautioned against the risk of recent positive investor sentiment suddenly deteriorating which would likely lead to financial conditions tightening precipitously.

The GFSR listed an unexpected shift towards less-dovish monetary policy, worsening economic growth and political risks as prospective causes for the next downturn in sentiment and financial conditions. If any of these potential catalysts materialize and consequently spark a tightening of financial conditions, a significant downturn could ensue and snowball into a much larger issue.

Complacency appears to have cultivated now considering that risk assets like stocks are within a couple of percentage points of their all-time highs despite growing signs of a deteriorating fundamental picture. Instead of pricing in these prevalent downside risks, equity markets look to have blindly rallied on the dovish shift by central bankers towards more accommodative monetary policy.

On a brighter note, however, the GFSR noted that if recent tariff hikes are scaled back and trade tensions deescalate, business confidence could rebound and lift economic growth. Moreover, prudent fiscal policy, proper regulation and defusing political pressures were also listed as possible solutions to reduce the aforementioned risks to financial stability.


Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

- Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.