News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/bpKdIqGxsn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/jmcAIW4w5k
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/M9isuvnzqF
  • The British Pound is giving back some of its multi-month gains with some pairs testing notable support despite a positive fundamental backdrop. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/6Ct5R0H41F https://t.co/c4rXmMjMrv
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/4dhCP5pnxM
  • Gold is facing the neckline of a Double Bottom Pattern after bouncing off a confirmed longer-term trendline. Is a bullish reversal in order? Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/kLXZewWBMd https://t.co/w1Nu0z569m
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here: https://t.co/8G8mUX4so6 https://t.co/Gn41XsGktg
  • Rollover is the interest paid or earned for holding a currency spot position overnight. Learn how to earn rollover interest on your open positions here: https://t.co/SRsG8CxjEn https://t.co/2AR1qgx0tz
  • The New Zealand Dollar is in a tricky spot. On one hand, rising stocks can propel NZD. On the other, a dovish RBNZ ahead could cool bond yields as the government tackles soaring housing costs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/5rjm2gr3EL https://t.co/aLwhWHMPqz
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/obH0RFLKhC
Stock Market Fund Flows Suggest S&P 500 Sentiment Remains Bullish

Stock Market Fund Flows Suggest S&P 500 Sentiment Remains Bullish

Peter Hanks, Strategist

Stock Market Fund Flows Talking Points:

Stock Market Fund Flows Suggest S&P 500 Sentiment Remains Bullish

The S&P 500 is headed for a painful Friday close, retracing the bullish reaction to Wednesday’s dovish FOMC meeting. At the time of this article’s publication, the index traded narrowly above 2,800 and slightly below prior resistance at 2,815, but considerable inflows into some of the market’s largest exchange traded funds suggest investors are still confident in the index’s ability to run.

Aggregate Fund Flows for Broad Market ETFs versus S&P 500 (Chart 1)

SPY, IVV VOO fund flow chart

The aggregate fund flows of SPY, IVV and VOO totaled $6.4 billion this week, with an intraday inflow of $4.3 billion on Monday alone. Investors were similarly confident on Tuesday, adding $1.8 billion in exposure to the three funds. After minor outflows on Wednesday, bullishness returned Thursday with an inflow of $782 million.

Compare how ETF investors are positioned to IG Clients using IG Client Sentiment Data.

For the year to date, net aggregate fund flows total $113 million, displaying investor indecision despite a corresponding 12% gain in the S&P 500. Profit-taking could partially explain the virtually deadlocked fund flows for the year, while capital rotation into more-specific sectors may explain it further.

HYG ETF Fund Flows versus S&P 500 (Chart 2)

HYG etf chart

The high-yield corporate debt ETF – HYG - posted a string of inflows this week. In total, $687 million in fresh capital entered the fund, a sign investors were confident the S&P 500 was aimed higher. Consequently, the ETF has seen over $2 billion in fresh capital for its coffers in the year to date. As general market theory would suggest, T-Bills have seen relatively consistent outflows.

BIL ETF Fund Flows versus S&P 500 (Chart 3)

BIL etf

The BIL ETF which grants exposure to 1-3-month T-Bills managed a weekly net inflow of $64 million, even as the dovish policy from the Federal Reserve weighs on yields. In the year to date, the fund has seen $765 million exit the fund, contrasting the consistent demand for more high-yielding debt like HYG. Still, BIL may be one important fund to watch in times of equity turbulence. If the broader equity markets were to fall under pressure, the relatively safe ETF would benefit and see greater demand.

S&P 500 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (October 2018 – March 2019) (Chart 4)

SPX price chart

Learn tips and tricks to day trading the S&P 500

As for the immediate outlook, the S&P 500 has multiple technical levels to negotiate. The index now trades within the band that previously offered resistance from 2,786 to 2,815, bolstered by the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 2,814. Beyond that, a tentative support trendline from December lies slightly below. Follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for deeper stock market and equity insights.

That said, the trendline has not been solidified as it only has two points of contact. If the trend is to gain technical respect, a close above the line early next week is paramount. With the S&P 500 trending higher since late December, a decidedly dovish Fed and consistent ETF inflows, the index has a plethora of reasons to trade higher next week.

View our Economic Calendar for important events and data releases next week.

On the other hand, domestic and global growth remain headwinds. Next Thursday will offer meaningful insight on the US economy with the release of first quarter GDP. For trend continuation purposes, the data will need to impress. ETF flows leading up to the data’s release next week may shed light on investor sentiment regarding the release.

Read more: Will the Stock Market Crash in 2019?

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES