We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.85%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.89%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/QfI3m1UEqZ
  • RT @business: Iran’s foreign minister warns that any U.S. or Saudi strike on his country would lead to “all-out war” https://t.co/i6O5k2IBqu
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD Continuing Claims (SEP 7) due at 12:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1672k Previous: 1670k https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-19
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 14) due at 12:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 214k Previous: 204k https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-19
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (SEP) due at 12:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 10.5 Previous: 16.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-19
  • Heads Up:🇨🇦 CAD ADP Canada Releases Aug. Payroll Estimates due at 12:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-19
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.63% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.48% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.33% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.00% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.14% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.50% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/XL9x2dmMXg
  • Iranian Foreign Minister warns that an attack from the US or Saudi Arabia would trigger an all out war - AFP
  • Exxon may be closing their Beaumont Texas refinery due to flooding from Storm Imelda - sources (capacity of 365kbpd)
  • RT @LiveSquawk: OECD Cuts 2019 Global Growth Forecast To 2.9% From 3.2%; Cuts 2020 To 3.0% From 3.4%
What do ASEAN and Emerging Markets Face in Final Weeks of 2018?

What do ASEAN and Emerging Markets Face in Final Weeks of 2018?

2018-12-17 04:30:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst

ASEAN Outlook – Philippine Peso, Bank of Indonesia, Fed, US Dollar, Global Growth Fears

  • Philippine Peso under pressure on trade deficit, China growth concerns as US Dollar rallied
  • Indonesia Rupiah eyes trade data, Bank of Indonesia. But focus may stem from outside forces
  • Final weeks of 2018 contain Fed rate decision, key US data. Can US Dollar rally if stocks fall?

Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

Broadly speaking, the US Dollar outperformed this past week thanks to a combination of the following. First, Brexit fears sent the British Pound broadly lower to the benefit of the greenback. Second, 2019 Fed rate hike bets improved after weeks of fading. Finally, aggressive risk aversion on Friday benefited the US Dollar as key Chinese economic data underwhelmed, increasing global growth fears.

For most emerging market currencies, particularly in the Southern eastern Asia region, this spelled trouble. On the table below, the greenback outperformed against the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso. Given that their associated countries have key trading relationships with China, more weakness from the world’s second largest economy provided jitters as anticipated.

US Dollar 5-Day Perfornace Against ASEAN Currencies

The Philippine Peso particularly underperformed, focusing more on trade developments than the central bank holding rates unchanged at 7.75%. Not only did the trade deficit widen to its largest on record, but estimates for the current account deficit in 2019 increased. Generally speaking, when imports outpace exports, a currency can depreciate as demand for it falls (see chart below). As a result, USD/PHP depreciated the most in a day in over seven months.

Philippine Trade Impact on USD/PHP

As we approach the final weeks of 2018, the regional economic calendar starts to thin out but there a couple of key events left. From Indonesia, we will get their trade balance report. Like the Philippines, Indonesia has seen net exports (another word for trade balance) in the deficit territory at multiple points this year. With the trade deficit still expected at -$790m in November, we may still see IDR downside pressures.

Then, we will get the Bank of Indonesia rate announcement on December 20, economists’ are anticipating a hold in the 7-day reverse repo rate at 6.00%. However, the central bank may signal that it is not done raising rates with a hawkish Fed and domestic core price pressures rising this past year. In addition, the central bank is still intervening in the markets to support its currency.

Whether or not the Indonesian Rupiah, or other emerging market currencies can find any support in the remaining weeks of 2018 will likely depend on the Fed and global growth jitters. This week, the Federal Reserve as anticipated to raise rates a fourth time this year. Expectations of hikes in 2019 have aggressively faded in recent weeks.

If the central bank still commits to hiking perhaps three times in 2019, the US Dollar could be in for an aggressive rally. A more cautious tone may do the opposite. In addition, the central bank is going to have a press conference for every meeting starting next year. This places more emphasis on how data performs between interest rate decisions.

In the US, this week also contains finalized third quarter GDP readings and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, PCE. Data has been tending to increasingly underperform relative to economists’ expectations as of late, opening the door to a downside surprise and weakness in the greenback. Finally, emerging markets could still be at risk to declines in global stock markets. The S&P 500 closed Friday at its lowest since April, this could insinuate downtrend resumption.

Read my ASEAN Technical Outlook to see what moves USD/MYR, USD/PHP, USD/IDR and USD/SGD could also make next!

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.