We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Join @MartinSEssex 's #webinar at 6:30 AM ET/10:30 AM GMT to learn more about trading #sentiment Register here: https://t.co/XUUPRdY06p https://t.co/KsjQit31hK
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/Qe7aw1a6UU
  • Crude Oil Prices May Turn Lower as Covid-19 Fears Reemerge - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2020/07/07/Crude-Oil-Prices-May-Turn-Lower-as-Covid-19-Fears-Reemerge.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #CrudeOil #oott #COVID19
  • Forex trading, which is the act of exchanging fiat currencies, is thought to be centuries old – dating back to the Babylonian period. Learn about the history of Forex here:https://t.co/ePTJlbUP7c https://t.co/bdDrVU9XED
  • 🇮🇹 Retail Sales MoM (MAY) Actual: 25.2% Previous: -10.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-07
  • Chinese gold reserves $110.76bln at the end of June from $108.29bln at the end of May, according to the PBoC
  • EU Commission - Euro Area GDP 2020 forecast at -8.7% (-7.7% previous) - 2021 GDP forecast at 6.1% (6.3% previous)
  • 🇮🇹 Retail Sales MoM (MAY) Actual: 25.2 Previous: -10.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-07
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.38%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 71.32%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/tjZNp13KdF
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Retail Sales MoM (MAY) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -10.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-07
Australian Dollar Down On China Data Misses, But Focused On Fed

Australian Dollar Down On China Data Misses, But Focused On Fed

2018-12-14 02:19:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:

Australian Dollar, Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales Data Talking Points:

  • Chinese industrial production rose at its slowest pace since early 2016 in November
  • Retail sales did much better but still missed forecasts
  • AUD/USD was stung, but the wait for next week’s US monetary policy decision is probably limiting action

Fourth-quarter technical and fundamental forecasts from the DailyFX analysts are out now.

The Australian Dollar slid Friday on the release of disappointing Chinese economic data from two key sectors.

November’s industrial production rose an annualized 5.4%. That was well below the 5.9% markets had expected and the weakest print since the start of 2016. Retail sales for the same month also missed forecasts. They rose a still-respectable 8.1% on the year, but the markets had been looking for an 8.8% rise. Urban investment levels were slightly better than expected, rising 5.9%.

The industrial figures speak eloquently to the thesis that China’s economy is slowing as the year turns. It’s also very possible that rising tariff barriers and trade tensions with the US are now making their presence felt in the numbers. Markets will want to see signs of a workable trade deal between Washington and Beijing as soon as possible now.

The Aussie can act as the markets’ top liquid China-market proxy given Australia’s huge raw-material export links to the world’s second largest economy. It certainly seems to have done so in this case, sinking before the data and carrying on down after it.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, 5-Munite Tick

On its daily chart AUD/USD remains above the downtrend channel which marked trade for much of this year, up until late November. The Aussie has been boosted by market caution about the likely extent of US interest rate rises this year, and by hopes that trade relations between China and the US will improve. Both countries are crucial to Australia.

Still Above Its Downtrend. Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, Daily Chart

The pair is edging toward the top of its recent short-term trading range, although it remains well below its most recent significant high. That was the 0.7395 hit on December 4.

It is worth remembering that the lack of interest rate support which plagued the Australian currency for most of the year remains in place and may have actually intensified. Rate futures markets now tip no increase in the record-low 1.5% Australian Official Cash Rate for at least eighteen months. All that has really changed is the extent to which markets believe US rates will outpace Australian.

With that in mind the AUD/USD market is likely to be stuck until at least next Wednesday when the Fed gives its final monetary policy dispensation of 2018. An increase will surprise no one, but the prognosis will be all important.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.