News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇦🇺 Ai Group Manufacturing Index (SEP) Actual: 46.7 Previous: 49.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-30
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s correction lower against the Japanese Yen and US Dollar may be at an end, as NZD remains constructively perched above key chart support. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/8GiKFTfrMP https://t.co/d2nKfhTfqZ
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Ai Group Manufacturing Index (SEP) due at 22:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 49.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-30
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Kaplan Speech due at 22:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-30
  • FDA expands U.S. safety inquiry into AstraZeneca vaccine: Reuters via BBG
  • I don't think there was even a meaningful 'hope' from the market that this was going to get through, so likely no risk retreat as part of an earnest disappointment https://t.co/9plviuDq0Y
  • House delays stimulus bill vote to allow for more time on talks - BBG
  • SA’s official Q2 unemployment rate at 23.3%, down from 30.1% in Q1. Get your $USDZAR market update from @RichardSnowFX here: https://t.co/coIzNSve7u https://t.co/bAGMxZVYYN
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.50% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.49% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.47% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.21% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.15% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/84GPyworwF
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.58% Oil - US Crude: -0.84% Silver: -3.68% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/xsYcuQg0ug
Brexit Briefing: EUR Steadies Then Falls After French Debate, Mixed PMI Data

Brexit Briefing: EUR Steadies Then Falls After French Debate, Mixed PMI Data

2017-04-05 10:27:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

- French Presidential debate sees Macron ahead while Le Pen dips.

- Despite missing flash estimates, European services expansion at 70-month high.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

With little rhetoric coming out of the UK as Brexit negotiations loom, EURGBP was driven by events and data releases in Europe mid-week. The lastest televised French Presidential elections saw the current poll favorite Emmanuael Macron confirm his front-runner status, while far-right leader Marine Le Pen struggled in the face of fierce critism.

An Elabe poll for BFM TV showed Jean-Luc Melenchon poll 25%, Emannuel Macron 21%, Francois Fillon 15% while Le Pen trailled in fourth with 11% of the vote after Tuesday’s showdown. The latest debate has done little to further Le Pen’s chances, with last night's poll highlighting that the competition on anti-European issues from the other smaller parties contributed to the far-right leader's mediocre score. Le Pen however is still expected to go through to the second round on May 7 to face Macron, with the latter expected to win the race by a healthy margin of 61% to 39%.

In the data space, the final look at Euro-Zone services activity missed earlier expectations but still hit a 70-month high in March. According to survey provider Markit, employment growth was at the highest level since November 2007 while overall Euro-Zone manufacturing and services output was at the best level since April 2011.

According to Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit: “The expansion recorded by the final PMI numbers was not quite the growth spurt indicated by the flash release, but still points to an impressive rate of economic growth. The latest numbers round off the strongest quarter since the spring of 2011 and are consistent with Euro-Zone GDP rising by 0.6% in the first three months of 2017.

EURGBP made early gains on both the French debate and the strong PMIs but edged off its highs after stronger-than-expected UK services data gave the British Pound a boost against the single currency.

Chart: EURGBP 10-Minute Timeframe (April 4 – April 5, 2017)

Brexit Briefing: EUR Steadies Then Falls After French Debate, Mixed PMI Data

Chart by IG

The only Brexit-related talk Wednesday came from EU Parliament chief negotiator Guy Verhofstadt, who said that the UK may one day re-join the single market. In a speech, Verhofstadt acknowledged the UK’s immense contribution to Europe and added on his Twitter account that “I am 100% sure that - one day - there will be a young leader who will try again to lead Britain back into the European family.”

Upcoming GBP Event Risk

Events

Date, Time (GMT)

Forecast

Previous

UK Industrial Production Y-o-Y (Feb)

April 7, 0830 GMT

3.7%

3.2%

UK Manufacturing Production Y-o-Y (Feb)

April 7, 0830 GMT

3.9%

2.7%

UK NIESR GDP Estimate (Mar)

April 7, 1200 GMT

0.6%

0.6%

Markets

Index / Exchange Rate

Change (Exchange Hours/GMT Session Rollover)

Market Close/Last

FTSE 100

0.27%

7,337

DAX

-0.25%

12,249

GBP/USD

0.34%

1.24820

EUR/USD

-0.09%

1.06645

EUR/GBP

-0.40%

0.85440

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Don't trade FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guides

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES