We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.17% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.21% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.38% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.58% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.63% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/GYMKPbC8bS
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.33% Wall Street: -0.49% Germany 30: -0.76% France 40: -0.82% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/MC6Ki0rn7u
  • https://t.co/ZsBa0R16cT
  • The opening gap higher for US crude oil was the biggest jump from close of one session to open of the next since Jan 15, 2009: https://t.co/inwVIkMoFX
  • #Gold is likely to re-test recent highs between $1,515/oz. and $1,528/oz ahead of the Fed but is unlikely to break higher until Fed chair Powell has spoken. Where is $gld heading? Get your technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/dzVNKutycP https://t.co/DAb1lJIgnp
  • How often do you experience #FOMOintrading? (Be honest) Not sure if you have #FOMO? Find out here with @PaulRobinsonFX : https://t.co/ymglOV8vvC
  • US 30-Year Treasury Yield is down this morning to 2.35%
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 9.82% Silver: 2.20% Gold: 0.67% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/szFjFVTfIF
  • 🇺🇸 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (SEP), Actual: N/A Expected: 66 Previous: 66 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-17
  • US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2019/09/16/us-dollar-price-outlook-eur-usd-gbp-usd-usd-cad-usd-chf-js52-usd-chart.html https://t.co/dM4YKDP9qd
NZDUSD Appears Vulnerable Near Critical Support

NZDUSD Appears Vulnerable Near Critical Support

2019-03-11 17:00:00
Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst
Share:

NZDUSD Trade Setup Talking Points:

  • NZDUSD tiptoes above its 100- and 200-day moving averages, and may look to test longer-term support
  • The week ahead presents ample opportunities to spark risk aversion
  • A break below support from October and the moving averages would likely spur a deeper sell-off

NZDUSD Appears Vulnerable Near Critical Support

NZDUSD looks threatened this week as the pair treads water above support stretching back to October 2018. The trendline has held its ground since its inception and during the USDJPY flash crash. Still, the pair appears weak given the long-term downward trend from April 2018 to the topside. With the pair seemingly caught between a tale of two trends, broader-market risk aversion may see topside resistance win out.

NZDUSD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (February 2018 – March 2019) (Chart 1)

NZDUSD price chart

Given the high levels of event risk in the week ahead, a return to the risk-averse mood experienced last week is well within reason. Should risk aversion reappear, the typically risk-on NZD may find itself pressured versus its USD counterpart which is oft regarded as a safe haven currency. Together, the technical and fundamental landscape appear skewed to the downside.

Price Levels to Watch

With that in mind, a breakthrough of the resistance trendline from April would effectively invalidate this trade setup as it is largely predicated on the strength of the longer-term trend. That said, minor resistance lies between the spot price at the time of this article’s publication and the April trendline at 0.6850. The area has provided moderate resistance in the past and marks May 2018’s swing low.

Improve your trading with “Traits of Successful Traders – Number One Mistake Traders Make.”

To the downside, the most notable level is the October trendline. A break below this level would likely open up further selling to the 0.6590 area which marked the bottom of the USDJPY flash crash. Apart from the October trendline, support is present nearby with the 100- and 200-day moving averages. A brief break below these indicators last week suggest downside pressure has been mounting. A close below either of the indicators, or both, would constitute further bearish bias.

As the pair approaches the confluence of the two longer-term trendlines, NZDUSD will likely await a fundamental spark. A Brexit breakdown or US equity weakness could deliver one. In the meantime, follow me on Twitter @PeterHanksFX for commentary and updates on this trade.

Read more: USD/CAD Risks Larger Pullback as Post-BoC Rally Stalls, RSI Flops

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Yen are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.