News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 1.08% Wall Street: 0.93% Germany 30: 0.13% FTSE 100: 0.10% France 40: 0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/YdA0uOcvxT
  • Overnight, RBA’s Kent had reiterated the message by the RBA Governor last week, that more monetary easing is on its way. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/Jq1ejeUf4Q https://t.co/16nQEIwC9i
  • webinar time... https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/455809179 topics up for discussion today: 1) USD - do something 2) Stocks supported on stimulus hopes 3) Crosses cleaning up a bit? starting right meow https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/455809179 https://t.co/zj9XN14BDv
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.82%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 72.47%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/qMPdBfUArS
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Evans Speech due at 17:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-20
  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: -Optimistic for stimulus deal -Trump administration has come a long way toward reaching an agreement -Want to crush the virus -Need to improve health care language on stimulus bill -Will speak with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin today at 3PM ET
  • Netflix earnings is due after the close today. Despite its being a vaunted FAANG member, I think it will draw less attention than tomorrow's Tesla update which has worked its way even higher into the speculative echelon. Personally, I put more on CSX as a reflection of economy.
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.27% Oil - US Crude: 0.31% Gold: 0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/pLRpke3JAJ
  • The bull market in gold has been in correction mode since it peaked in early August, and while it appears is a healthy retracement at this juncture, it is unclear just how much longer it will last. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX :https://t.co/5etzhvsLuC https://t.co/aE7SaPPwih
  • $SPX bull flag + 38.2 retrace of the sep-oct major move $SPY $ES https://t.co/NbehE85NQc
NZD/CAD Long-Term Top Trade Idea  ** Update **

NZD/CAD Long-Term Top Trade Idea ** Update **

2019-08-27 15:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
Share:

*** Top Trade Idea Update - August 27, 2019 ***

The short NZD/CAD position I suggested as my Top Trade Idea of 2019 is starting to near levels that may see its 2019 sell-off paused. The current spot price of 0.8436 is close to the September 2018 swing low around 0.8325, a level that guards 0.8292, the September 2015 low and the start of the bull market move up to 0.9928 printed in November 2016.

The driver for the trade was for the interest rate differential between the two currencies to widen with Canada hiking interest rates earlier than New Zealand. While the differential between the two has widen, this is more to do with New Zealand cutting rates before Canada – so the right reason but the wrong way for it to happen!!

The levels noted above should be watched carefully as they may well block a further move lower for the pair. The RSI indicator at the bottom of the chart is also now touching oversold territory, another brake on any further sell-off. While NZDCAD may move lower, the speed and distance of the next move may be slow and limited.

All the DailyFX Top Trade Ideas, Forecasts and Trading Guides

NZD/CAD Daily Price Chart (2015 – August 27, 2019)

NZD/CAD Long-Term Top Trade Idea ** Update **

Original Story – Late December 2018

Short NZD/CAD – Interest Rate Differentials Will Start to Kick In

Not the most commonly-traded currency pair but fundamentally and technically this trade is one to consider for the longer-term in 2019. One of the main drivers for this trade is the expected future interest-rate differential between the two currencies. Both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Bank of Canada (BOC) have their key lending rate currently pegged at 1.75%, but this is set to change. The market is currently pricing in two 0.25% rate hikes in Canada in 2019 while the first RBNZ interest rate hike is expected in 2020 at the earliest. This should not only underpin the Canadian dollar against the New Zealand dollar but also strengthen it through 2019, pushing NZD/CAD lower as the rate differential between the two central banks widens.

The chart below shows how NZD/CAD has pushed higher recently - due primarily to a weak oil complex - and this is expected to slow or reverse shortly as oil stabilizes. The downward channel in place off the late 2016 high remains in place and should start to apply downside pressure shortly, while the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late 2015-late 2016 rally cuts across the down channel around 2 points from the spot price. The RSI indicator at the bottom of the chart is in extreme overbought territory, flashing a further sell-signal. The pair would need to break and close above 95.17 – the March 2018 high – to invalidate the set-up.

NZD/CAD Daily Price Chart (2014 – December 5, 2018)

NZD/CAD Long-Term Top Trade Idea ** Update **

Data Source: IG. Prepared by Nicholas Cawley

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES