News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • A big day for $Gold Gold spent > than nine months in this bearish channel, building as a bull flag. At the time: - Bitcoin was below $12k - Ethereum was below $400 - Doge was worth about 1/3rd of 1 cent The only true constant is change https://t.co/igOIe9axdf https://t.co/4tzQQzdB0P
  • 🇺🇸 Overall Net Capital Flows (MAR) Actual: $146.4B Previous: $73.7B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-17
  • 🇺🇸 Foreign Bond Investment (MAR) Actual: $118.9B Previous: $-65.5B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-17
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.31% France 40: 0.25% Germany 30: 0.16% Wall Street: -0.01% US 500: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/2O0aGnwxiF
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Overall Net Capital Flows (MAR) due at 20:00 GMT (15min) Previous: $72.6B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-17
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Foreign Bond Investment (MAR) due at 20:00 GMT (15min) Previous: $-65.5B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-17
  • USD/JPY continues to pullback from the monthly high (109.79) to largely mirror the recent weakness in longer-dated US Treasury yields. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/fv1jjcufMX https://t.co/RQrkxYSsG7
  • Gold continues to climb as US real yields maintain their decline $XAUUSD https://t.co/M8GH93UvoL
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.72% Gold: 1.24% Oil - US Crude: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/LEuM2UyMpc
  • Canadian #Dollar Forecast: $USDCAD Seven-Week Plunge Searches Support - https://t.co/XW5aHqivhu https://t.co/rrZtho7V70
Gold Sentiment Shifts towards Sellers – Long Opportunity

Gold Sentiment Shifts towards Sellers – Long Opportunity

Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Head of Education

We’ve been keeping an eye on Gold for the past 2 months as the Elliott Wave picture was signaling a medium term low forming from nearby levels. The zone we identified on June 21, 2015 was 1060-1131.

“There is a false breakout zone from 1060-1131 which means so long as prices hold above 1060, this wave counts suggests the possibility for 1300-1450. So the deeper Gold drives, the better the risk reward ratio trade there is.” Gold Bugs – You May Get Your Wish June 21, 2015

The eventual break lower did hold above 1060 and bullish patterns are emerging which is why we mentioned in Monday’s US Opening Bell webinar inside DailyFX Plus about placing a breakout trade above the August 12 high. Namely it appears a bullish 5 wave sequence is underway.

That breakout trade mentioned in Monday’s webinar did trigger on Wednesday, which coincidentally, was the same day that SSI shifted from net bullish to net bearish. That is a significant development because as recent as 1 month ago, SSI was +4. Traders were bullish as the Gold price dropped. Now that Gold is driving higher, traders are selling.

From a fundamental perspective, traders are becoming impatient and are losing faith in a September rate hike. As a result, rate hike expectations are pushing out farther and USD longs are unwinding. Add to the mix global fears with China devaluing their currency and Gold is a beneficiary of the market environment.

Suggested Reading:

Gold Surges on Best of US Rate Rise Delay

What Does Yuan’s Devaluation Mean for Chinese and Global Markets?

From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears we are embarking upon circle wave ‘C’ of an A-B-C expanded flat correction. That suggests wave ‘C’ higher will likely carry above 1300 and possibly even to 1450. As the waves develop, we can hone in on potential termination points of wave ‘C’.

Gold Sentiment Shifts towards Sellers – Long Opportunity

(click on chart to zoom in)

Until then, we have a longer term positive risk to reward ratio trade and we’ll use an intraday chart to fine tune the entry.

Last night’s high terminated near a 1.618 wave relationship. This means what we witnessed on Wednesday and Thursday was a wave 3. That would lead to a wave 4 lower and wave 5 higher on a smaller time scale. We’ll anticipate the termination of wave 4 near 1130 and look to build our long position from there.

The 1120-1130 zone offers a good risk to reward ratio long trade as we’ll place the stop loss just below July’s low at 1060.

Our initial target is 1300 resulting in a 1:2.4 risk to reward ratio on the minimum target.

Good luck!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES