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Bearish USD/CHF Off of Fibonacci Resistance

Bearish USD/CHF Off of Fibonacci Resistance

2018-02-21 19:36:00
James Stanley, Strategist
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We looked into the short-side of USD/CHF earlier this morning in the effort of catching a lower-high in the pair. While many have been watching EUR/USD or even USD/JPY as USD-weakness came roaring back last week, an arguably smoother trend has started to show in USD/CHF.

Just last week the pair put in a bearish break below a bear flag formation, and that led into fresh two-year lows just a few days later. The US Dollar finally found some element of short-term support last Friday, and that Dollar strength helped USD/CHF retrace back towards a key zone of resistance that runs from .9386-.9408. When we looked at the pair’s price action this morning, bullish momentum hadn’t yet showed any signs of slowing down. We had identified an area of short-term support around .9350 that could open the door for short-side setups, and in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes release, prices traded through that support, opening the door for bearish continuation strategies.

Stops can be set above .9470 to get risk levels outside of prior resistance. This would amount to a little over 100 pips of risk, which could be justified with targets cast down to the prior two-year low of .9257.

Initial targets can be set inside of the prior two year low. That two-year low was at .9257, and initial profit targets can be set to .9261 to get just inside of that prior marker, at which point stops can be adjusted to break-even. Secondary targets can be set to the fresh two-year low, set just last week, at .9184.

USD/CHF Four-Hour Chart

usdchf four hour chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

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Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the Australian Dollar, or the USD? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q1 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on our AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and U.S. Dollar pages. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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