Talking Points:
• FX-based volatility has hit its highest level since October 2011
• Market-wide volatility will continue to wear on risk trends and monetary policy may accelerate the shift
• Expectations for near-term ECB stimulus are high - but dependency may be higher
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Volatility is now an indelible feature of the trading landscape. While a 'black swan' event like the break of the SNB's ill-fated policy program is highly unlikely, a natural structural rise in activity and risk looks almost certainly. With FX-based volatility hitting its highest levels since late 2011 this past week, top event risk remains with the currency market in the form of the ECB rate decision. Expectations for a near-term introduction of a full-scale QE program were leveraged by speculation that the SNB's failure was due to their anticipating an imminent Euro-area stimulus upgrade that would make their effort all but futile. This has both driven the Euro sharply lower and heartened capital markets (especially European equities). Expectations are now set extraordinarily high and leveraged the consequences of not following through. Will monetary policy set off risk trends? What are the risks and opportunities this presents? We discuss this in the weekend Trading Video.
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