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Euro Update: EUR/USD Remains Supported Ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony

Euro Update: EUR/USD Remains Supported Ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist

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EUR/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis

  • Chair Powell testifies before the Senate this afternoon.
  • The Euro is flat to marginally better bid over the past week.
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Most Read: EUR/GBP Latest – Is a Fresh Multi-Month High Brewing?

The European Central Bank (ECB) is becoming increasingly worried about the current level of inflation in the single block and its message of higher rates for longer is giving the Euro an underlying bid. There’s talk now of an additional 200 basis points of interest rates hikes by the ECB over the coming months to combat persistently high price pressures in the Eurozone, taking the central bank’s rate to 4.5%. In July last year, the ECB’s deposit facility was at 0%.

The main risk event of the week, Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee begins at 15:00 GMT today. Chair Powell will be questioned by US lawmakers on the central bank’s course of action to reduce inflation and his answers will provide the market with further insight into where the Fed sees interest rates ending up. This terminal rate has been pushed higher over the course of this year from a market level of 4.8% to a fraction under 5.5%.

In addition to Powell’s commentary, this week sees the latest US Jobs Report released on Friday. The path of the US dollar in the weeks ahead should be much clearer going into the weekend.

For all market-moving economic events and data releases, see the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

EUR/USD has been moving slowly higher over the last eight trading sessions, creating a mini-series of higher highs and higher lows. This price action however has formed a bearish flag formation that suggests a break lower is on the cards. Initial support is seen around the recent double low near the 1.0530 level, before 1.0500 and 1.0483 come into play.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart – March 7, 2023

image1.png

Charts via TradingView

EUR/USD Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 4% 17% 8%
Weekly -2% -6% -4%
What does it mean for price action?
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Retail Traders Cut Longs, Increase Shorts

Retail trader data show 42.94% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.33 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 11.40% lower than yesterday and 20.44% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 28.27% higher than yesterday and 30.40% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

What is your view on EUR/USD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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