Euro (EUR) Forecast – EUR/USD Slumps to a Fresh 20-Year Low, Ifo Warns of a Recession
EUR/USD Price, Chart, and Analysis
- Euro rattled as German Ifo data falls further.
- Far-right set to rule in Italy.
- EUR/USD hits a fresh two-decade low on renewed USD strength.
The German Ifo institute is the latest body to warn that the country is likely to enter a recession in the coming quarters with companies showing a strong degree of pessimism for the coming months, according to their latest report. Today’s data missed both expectations and the prior month’s numbers. The Ifo report is the first of many German releases this week that will give a much clearer picture of the state of the German economy.
Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy party is set to rule the country after winning the election over the weekend. According to the latest figures from the BBC, Ms. Meloni’s right-wing alliance with the far-right parties League and Forza Italia have enough votes to control both the Senate and the Chambers of Deputies.
Italian government bond yields edged higher with the 10-year offered at 4.465%, a handful of basis points away from its highest level in nine years.
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The Euro hit its lowest level against the US dollar in over 20 years earlier in the session, driven mainly by US dollar strength. While the greenback is dictating market moves across the board, the Euro as a currency remains weak and looks likely to fall further. Any pullbacks are expected to be short-lived and today’s low print of 0.9550 will likely be re-rested soon.
EUR/USD Monthly Price Chart September 26, 2022
Retail trader data show 74.05% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.85 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 11.27% lower than yesterday and 5.60% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 16.10% higher than yesterday and 37.08% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias.
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