News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analyst @ @MartinSEssex and @DColman on EUR with our free Q4 market analysis guide, available for free today.https://t.co/YwV249fojQ #Dailyfxguides https://t.co/BvfOW4QwZ9
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/6cn6OK6M7w
  • RT @Stephanie_Link: 84% of $SPX companies have beaten EPS estimates to date for Q3, which is tied for the 3rd highest percentage since 2008…
  • What is #NFP and how can you trade it? Find out: https://t.co/XJWS04IF9j https://t.co/iV9lPzPDtc
  • What does it mean when one candle fully engulfs the previous in its price action? The bullish engulfing candle is one of the forex market?€?s most clear-cut price action signals. Figure out how to identify this pattern here: https://t.co/Yg6ecRZZNr https://t.co/3J0xXp4axT
  • Oil maintains a medium-term bullish outlook, but its overbought condition and price's proximity to key technical resistance may pave the way for a brief pullback before the next leg higher. Get your weekly oil forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/sv2bMc34gI https://t.co/DDIoe4VhZ3
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/P3SduerCFF
  • The update to the US GDP report may keep the Greenback under pressure as signs of a slowing recovery undermines speculation for an imminent shift in Fed policy. Get your weekly USD forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/xvLr1bLfZG https://t.co/aQnOIoUM9t
  • There a many different trading styles that can be applied to trading forex. Learn about different types of traders here: https://t.co/xfzRCzuuKK https://t.co/GXxdkNEeCg
  • Hang Seng Tech Index has likely formed a bullish “Inverse Head and Shoulders” chart pattern. Immediate support and resistance levels can be found at 5,800 and 7,433 respectively. Breaching above 7,433 would likely bring 8,266 into focus. https://t.co/VsavFLj97V
Live Data Coverage: September Federal Reserve Meeting, Rate Decision

Live Data Coverage: September Federal Reserve Meeting, Rate Decision

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Advertisement

September FOMC Preview:

  • The Federal Reserve will release a new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as well as the first ‘dots’ in the dot plot for 2024.
  • Policymakers most likely won’t announce a taper, but will give their strongest hint that the taper announcement will come as soon as November.
  • We’ll discuss how markets may react to the September Federal Reserve rate decision starting at 13:45 EDT/17:45 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.

Taper Talk at a Boil

In context of recent economic data, it seems that more “progress” may have been made towards the Fed’s goal of seeing jobs growth return to its pre-pandemic days: August US retail sales proved better than expected; and weekly jobless claims data have not suggested significant volatility in the labor market as unemployment insurance benefits have ended.

However, with headline US NFP growth slowing in August and a potential US debt ceiling breach looming next month, a taper announcement seems unlikely to arrive today. Instead, it is widely anticipated that the September Fed meeting will yield a strong hint that the taper will begin before the end of the year.

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations (September 22, 2021) (Table 1)

Live Data Coverage: September Federal Reserve Meeting, Rate Decision

Rate hike expectations have been rather consistent for two months. Ahead of the July FOMC meeting, markets were pricing in a 68% chance that December 2022 would be the first month that produced a 25-bps rate hike. Now, just ahead of the September Fed meeting, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 75% chance of the first hike arriving in December 2022. Not a significant change, but one that speaks to a more hawkish outlook by market participants.

Taper Timeline

After suggesting that the inflation mandate “was met” at the August Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to give his strongest indication yet that a taper announcement will be made soon – just not today. Accordingly, the taper timeline that we’ve outlined for several months now appears intact ahead of the September Fed meeting:

  • June through September 2021 = taper talk
  • August/September 2021 = indication taper is coming
  • November/December 2021 = taper targets announced
  • December 2021/January 2022 = taper begins
  • September/December 2022 = taper ends
  • January 2023/March 2023 = first rate hike (3-6 months post-end of taper)

We’ll discuss how markets may react to the September Federal Reserve rate decision starting at 13:45 EDT/17:45 GMT. You can join live by watching the stream at the top of this note.

Read more: Central Bank Watch: Fed Speeches, Interest Rate Expectations Update; September Fed Meeting Preview

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES