It was a relatively volatile week with several headlines to keep everyone on their feet (namely FOMC/Trump, Trade War). The Dollar hit an extreme and reversed course Wednesday/Thursday, which increases the likelihood of a decline. The Euro hit support and looks poised try and recover, GBPUSD looks similarly.
Technical Highlights:
- DXY breakout looking vulnerable to selling
- EURUSD hits underside t-line, poised to recover
- GBPUSD oversold at long-term support zone
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DXY breakout looking vulnerable to selling
The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke out on Fed day, but that is quickly coming under fire and soon the area around 98 may break. On a breakdown the initial target will be the trend-line coming up off the June low near 97.60.
DXY Daily Chart (breakout at risk of failing)
U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY)
EURUSD hits underside t-line, poised to recover
The Euro is the main driver behind the DXY at a hefty 57% of the index weighting, so naturally a bearish DXY outlook will coincide with a bullish EURUSD outlook. Yesterday, price put in a reversal at a long-term underside trend-line, which has the good. The bad is that lows from April and May are acting as resistance. Tough spot for traders. But, the bigger picture support looks poised to win out and on that a smallish rally to ensue.
EURUSD Weekly Chart (coming off support line)
EURUSD Daily Chart (caught under prior lows)
GBPUSD oversold at long-term support zone
Lots of support down here, but the zone is fairly sizable. It extends from current levels down to just above the 11900-mark. Price action is still weak but that could quickly change. With Cable having fallen down to this point so sharply it is oversold, and on that price support coupled with bullish price action creates an appealing case for a recovery to develop.
GBPUSD Daily Chart (Big support at its feet)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX