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  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Retail Sales MoM Final (JUN) due at 01:30 GMT (15min) Expected: -1.8% Previous: 0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-04
  • The US Dollar could lose some ground against ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar and Thai Baht amid slowing Emerging Asia Covid case growth. Softer US NFPs may also bode well.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/jnJ80hQR4P https://t.co/n8UXm0mUeb
  • This week's non-farm payrolls (NFP) will likely be key to gauge the direction of gold as markets look ahead to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/WmTrqe0xJN https://t.co/BO2uwXMAko
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  • RT @FxWestwater: $NZDUSD Wedge Breakout Back in Play on Stellar Q2 Jobs Report Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/08/03/NZDUSD-Wedge-Breakout-Back-in-Play-on-Stellar-Q2-Jobs-Report.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/YAIqqu5RDB
  • 🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Final (JUL) Actual: 44.2 Previous: 56.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • $AUDNZD likely to attempt closing at a new 2021 low over the remaining 24 hours following the stellar New Zealand jobs report The December 2020 low has been further exposed at 1.0418 since July's #RBNZ rate decision New Zealand bond yields on the rise https://t.co/ipjwkSNt9n https://t.co/ncQX4hL8G3
  • Strong jobs report lifts $NZD - Money markets pricing in a 93% probability of a 25bps hike at the August meeting (previously 77%) - Over the forecast horizon, the RBNZ had projected (in the May MPS) the unemployment rate to gradually fall to 4.3% https://t.co/G5Ejzl2H6L
  • #NZDUSD cautiously higher after solid New Zealand jobs report Unemployment rate declined to 4.0% in Q2 from 4.7% prior (vs 4.4% anticipated) Job gains were at 1.7% y/y vs 1.2% expected Data seems to be supporting the case for a less-dovish #RBNZ given the cease to QE recently https://t.co/XmzhuLXh1H
Gold Price May Decline Quickly; Euro & Other Charts to Watch Next Week

Gold Price May Decline Quickly; Euro & Other Charts to Watch Next Week

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Gold price is trying to hang onto trend-line support from August, but if it soon fails it might mean a meaningful decline unfolds next week. The Dollar looks set to trade to new levels not seen in a couple of years; Euro, Aussie, and Kiwi look especially vulnerable. Plus, we going to look at a bonus chart that could soon come into play…

Technical Highlights:

  • Gold price flirting with break of August trend-line
  • EURUSD chart points to new swing lows soon
  • AUDUSD & NZDUSD charts are especially vulnerable

See where our team of analysts see your favorite markets and currencies headed in the in the DailyFX Trading Forecasts.

Gold price flirting with break of August trend-line

Gold price is sitting on the August trend-line following a retest of the underside of the descending wedge top it had formed for the better part of two months. A decisive break of the trend-line will have the 200-day MA at 1253 in focus, followed by the 1230s.

But a larger move is anticipated with there being plenty of room to trade down to the bottom of a long-term wedge, not arriving until the low 1200s. If the trend-line holds the outlook won’t turn bullish but will stave off selling for the moment, but perhaps all it does is turnout to be a congestion pattern which leads to an eventual breakdown. At this time things don't look too good for gold.

Gold Price Daily Chart (August t-line in jeopardy)

Gold price daily chart, August t-line in jeopardy

Gold Price Weekly Chart (long-term wedge)

Gold price weekly chart, long-term wedge

Find out where our analysts see Gold heading in the coming weeks based on both fundamental and technical factors – Q2 Gold Forecast

EURUSD chart points to new swing lows soon

The Euro posted a bearish daily reversal candle the other day off the trend-line running lower since the March peak. Price is already halfway back down towards the low from last month at 11110, but if recent history is any guide then we should see a fresh swing-low develop. There are support lines near the 11100-level to keep an eye on. They may put in yet another floor in EURUSD as new lows have not held for long once carved out. A break below 11000 would be reason to look for selling to accelerate, with eyes on the 2017 French election gap at 10724.

Find out where our analysts see the Euro heading in the coming weeks based on both fundamental and technical factors – Q2 Euro Forecast

EURUSD Daily Chart (looking for a new low at the least)

EURUSD daily chart, looking for a new low at the least

AUDUSD & NZDUSD charts are especially vulnerable

AUDUSD is very close to trading below the important 7000-line in a meaningful way, the bottom of a broad wedge dating back to October. The 3-month range has led to some of the tightest trading conditions in quite a while. This coiled up price action is set to expand into a large swing, with the downside most likely. A weekly close below 7000 will add further conviction to a bearish trading bias. A hold above 7000 keeps the trading bias neutral to maybe even slightly positive as the wedge may want to further fill out before breaking.

AUDUSD Weekly Chart (close below 7000 opens up for more losses)

AUDUSD weekly chart, close below 7000 opens up for more losses

At the beginning of last month Kiwi ended a long stretch of extremely tight trading conditions, and on the breakdown it has formed a solid downtrend. The trend-line off the March high keeps it focused lower at the moment. A break below 65800 should open up a path towards the 64000s where lies a trend-line from 2015 and the lows from last year.

NZDUSD Daily Chart (trading lower in-line w/t-line)

NZDUSD daily chart, trading lower t-line w/t-line

Bonus Chart: GBPJPY Daily Chart (Descending wedge coming together nicely)

GBPJPY daily chart, descending wedge coming together nicely

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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