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  • #Gold is hitting fresh nine-month low in the aftermath of Fed Chair Powell's speech, falling to currently trade right around $1,700 for the first time since June of 2020. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/6OJ5Fn4Kn8
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.38%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 70.84%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Lgws7z82Gc
  • $Silver testing confluent support, trendline + 23.6 fibo $SLV $XAG https://t.co/UTHhXzPS1v
  • $EURUSD tripping back down to the 1.2000 level on these Powell comments https://t.co/SAAMVbJtpe https://t.co/NXBumuo4qA
  • Commodities Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 5.61% Gold: -0.15% Silver: -0.56% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ssjMeko9zk
  • $DXY US Dollar Index spiking to session highs on the back of this move in yields. $EURUSD tumbling down to the 1.2000-level. https://t.co/ZPADmoQfHe
  • The gold breakdown is now testing the first major hurdle at downtrend support early in the month and we’re on the lookout for possible inflection into this region. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/oBxtJDJIT9 https://t.co/o1qKrWbCXT
  • - Financial conditions are highly accommodative and that's appropriate
  • Powell reiterating remarks from other FOMC officials about recent bond market volatility, saying that the surge in yields has been 'notable and caught his eye.' US10YR jumping toward February's high around 1.55% now. https://t.co/qqKojyncii
  • - Current policy stance is appropriate
Charts for Next Week: USD (DXY), EURUSD, Gold, Crude Oil Price & More

Charts for Next Week: USD (DXY), EURUSD, Gold, Crude Oil Price & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

The US Dollar Index (DXY) posted a reversal bar on a failed attempt to break out, more weakness expected in days ahead; euro to rebound a bit. Gold could bounce a bit, but look for trend to remain down, same with oil (watch important July slope).

Technical Highlights:

  • USD index (DXY) reversal-bar has short-term pullback in motion
  • EUR/USD to rebound more off support
  • Gold may bounce a bit, but then weaken some more
  • Crude oil still looks bearish, watch July slope

For longer-term trading ideas, forecasts, and a library of educational content, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

USD index (DXY) reversal-bar has short-term pullback in motion

As we noted in Wednesday’s session, the US Dollar Index (DXY) looked poised to pull back despite having slightly breached the November high. Yesterday’s reversal on a failed attempt to stay above 95.15 has focus shifted lower towards the trend-line running higher from the April trough. Additionally, around the trend-line is an important inflection point from last year around 94.10 which may come into play as support. For now, more weakness expected.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart (More weakness expected)

US Dollar Index (DXY) daily chart

EUR/USD to rebound more off support

After briefly breaching the January 2017 trend-line, touching off on long-term support, the euro reversed course yesterday to put momentum back in favor of the top-side. It, like the DXY which is it is a large constituent of, has a trend-line running down from April which may cap an advance. More upside looks to be in store, but for now only corrective in nature.

See the IG Client Sentiment page for how sentiment changes can help you better gauge market direction.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (More rebound off support)

EUR/USD daily chart, more rebound off support looks likely

Gold may bounce a bit, but then weaken some more

Gold currently has no visible levels of support to lean on, but given its extended state and vulnerability of the dollar, we may see a recovery try to mount for at least part of next week. It’s at risk of failure though as both downward momentum and lack of meaningful support are in favor of short-sellers.

Looking lower, the April lower parallel may provide support if it is met, but at the angle which gold is operating on, the December 2015 trend-line and December low are likely to come into play as having potential for a big floor, if one is to develop.

In FX land, the GBP/AUD set-up discussed the other day is still on the table…

Gold Daily Chart (Bounce, then down…)

Gold daily chart, bounce then down...

Crude oil still looks bearish, watch July slope

After taking a three-month hiatus as support, the July slope recently came back into play as support and has so far kept oil from declining further. It’s a tough spot for crude at the moment, as it has support at its feet but also resistance just ahead. It appears crude is merely undergoing a digestion of the move off the highs, but until the July slope can break there is still a chance for a stronger bid to come in.

The anticipation on this end, though, is the bounce won’t sustain above 67 and we see a meaningful break of the July slope develop soon. If this is case, the June ’17 trend-line and 200-day (in confluence) are likely to come under pressure.

Crude Oil Daily Chart (July slope = Very Important)

Crude oil daily chart, july slope is important

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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