Trading Outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, Crude Oil & More
The euro is bouncing off a significant area of long-term support, could post a bullish weekly reversal bar. USD/JPY is on the verge of putting in a bearish chart pattern. Gold is tough trading, but don’t take your eye off it. Crude oil business as usual on dip, or change in character emerging?
- EUR/USD rebound could continue, USD/JPY roll-over may be next play
- Gold stuck, but keep an eye on it should it free itself up soon
- Crude oil testing support, but watch out if it breaks
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EUR/USD rebound could continue, USD/JPY roll-over may be next play
The euro is coming off significant long-term support running back to 2015/16 as well as a trend-line extending higher since the final trading day of 2016. The powerful decline and bounce has the possibility of a key-reversal developing on the weekly chart by the end of today.
The U.S. jobs report could certainly impact this, so we’ll need to see how things play out before turning too bullish heading into next week. But if a solid key-reversal solidifies by day’s end, then we’ll be ready to look for buying opportunities next week.
EUR/USD Weekly Chart (Key-reversal in the works)
For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Euro Forecast
USD/JPY’s sharp decline and tepid recovery thus far has a ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern building. It’s not yet matured with the right shoulder in need of fully developing, but the pattern could soon validate on a drop below neckline support.
USD/JPY 4-hr Chart (H&S Underway?)
For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Japanese Yen Forecast
Gold stuck, but keep an eye on it should it free itself up soon
Gold remains a difficult handle for traders, with it caught between the lines; December 2016 uptrend line and bottom of the recently broken multi-month range. While staying away from gold at the moment looks like the prudent play, a breakout back inside the range or below the 2016 trend-line could offer up some decent momentum for a change of pace.
Gold Daily Chart (Watch for a break of either side)
For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Gold Forecast
Crude oil testing support, but watch out if it breaks
Crude oil is currently testing support by way of a pair of peaks created this year and a trend-line extending higher since August. The confluence of support offers a solid backstop for the market to turn higher, but if it doesn’t soon then a change in character will be under way. In previous months, declines have been quickly met by aggressive turnarounds within days of a low.
If oil doesn’t soon respond and falls below support we could see the decline quickly further itself along, especially given how large the speculative positioning is in the WTI contract. On a break the next line to watch is the July slope just under 64.
Crude Oil Daily Chart (Support at risk of breaking)
For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Crude Oil Forecast
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.