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  • The 10-day range and realized volatility (ATR) on $USDMXN are the lowest since 2008 and 2014 respectively. Breakout risk is high - when the right spark comes along (eg FOMC) https://t.co/teP1XQI7W6
  • Bitcoin taking a breather today after rallying back above $47,000. 50-day MA crosses back above the 200-day MA $BTCUSD #Bitcoin https://t.co/5Yidx9WQhc
  • AUD/USD extends the decline following the larger-than-expected contraction in Australia employment as fresh data prints coming out of the US fuel speculation for an imminent shift in monetary policy. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/40vc0oCeiE https://t.co/vjrF47cALn
  • Gold prices are plodding along below symmetrical triangle support, with momentum indicators starting to point lower. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/9JDAY4QlnJ https://t.co/ftL6JbIC3c
  • Ouch. S&P Global said today that El Salvador's announcement that Bitcoin was legal tender represented an 'immediate' negative credit risk to its B- standing. They warn of trouble with IMF fund access and fiscal vulnerabilities. #Bitcoin
  • 🇺🇸 Overall Net Capital Flows (JUL) Actual: $126B Previous: $32B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-16
  • 🇺🇸 Foreign Bond Investment (JUL) Actual: $10.2B Previous: $10.9B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-16
  • US equities have come under a bit of pressure recently which has played in nicely with the recent trend in the S&P 500, which has been bouncing off a key trendline support for the past year. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/QIyCQJUasG https://t.co/LxuUGGY4yS
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Overall Net Capital Flows (JUL) due at 20:00 GMT (15min) Previous: $31.5B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-16
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Foreign Bond Investment (JUL) due at 20:00 GMT (15min) Previous: $10.9B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-16
Trading Outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, Crude Oil & More

Trading Outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, Crude Oil & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

The euro is bouncing off a significant area of long-term support, could post a bullish weekly reversal bar. USD/JPY is on the verge of putting in a bearish chart pattern. Gold is tough trading, but don’t take your eye off it. Crude oil business as usual on dip, or change in character emerging?

Technical Highlights:

  • EUR/USD rebound could continue, USD/JPY roll-over may be next play
  • Gold stuck, but keep an eye on it should it free itself up soon
  • Crude oil testing support, but watch out if it breaks

Trading is extremely challenging without confidence, check out these 4 ideas to start building your confidence today.

EUR/USD rebound could continue, USD/JPY roll-over may be next play

The euro is coming off significant long-term support running back to 2015/16 as well as a trend-line extending higher since the final trading day of 2016. The powerful decline and bounce has the possibility of a key-reversal developing on the weekly chart by the end of today.

The U.S. jobs report could certainly impact this, so we’ll need to see how things play out before turning too bullish heading into next week. But if a solid key-reversal solidifies by day’s end, then we’ll be ready to look for buying opportunities next week.

EUR/USD Weekly Chart (Key-reversal in the works)

EUR/USD weekly chart, possible key-reversal if rally can hold or further along today

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Euro Forecast

USD/JPY’s sharp decline and tepid recovery thus far has a ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern building. It’s not yet matured with the right shoulder in need of fully developing, but the pattern could soon validate on a drop below neckline support.

USD/JPY 4-hr Chart (H&S Underway?)

USD/JPY 4-hr chart, H&S underway?

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Japanese Yen Forecast

Gold stuck, but keep an eye on it should it free itself up soon

Gold remains a difficult handle for traders, with it caught between the lines; December 2016 uptrend line and bottom of the recently broken multi-month range. While staying away from gold at the moment looks like the prudent play, a breakout back inside the range or below the 2016 trend-line could offer up some decent momentum for a change of pace.

Gold Daily Chart (Watch for a break of either side)

gold daily chart, waiting for a break of either side

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Gold Forecast

Crude oil testing support, but watch out if it breaks

Crude oil is currently testing support by way of a pair of peaks created this year and a trend-line extending higher since August. The confluence of support offers a solid backstop for the market to turn higher, but if it doesn’t soon then a change in character will be under way. In previous months, declines have been quickly met by aggressive turnarounds within days of a low.

If oil doesn’t soon respond and falls below support we could see the decline quickly further itself along, especially given how large the speculative positioning is in the WTI contract. On a break the next line to watch is the July slope just under 64.

Crude Oil Daily Chart (Support at risk of breaking)

crude oil daily chart, testing important support

For the intermediate-term fundamental/technical outlook, check out the Crude Oil Forecast

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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