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Video: Gold Breaks 1,300 and It Can Draw Power from Many Sources

Video: Gold Breaks 1,300 and It Can Draw Power from Many Sources

Talking Points:

  • Gold breaks a triple top and the subsequent 1,300 psychological level
  • A break was inevitable, but direction wasn't obvious - nor is follow through a certainty
  • Risk aversion and Dollar specific losses can keep the metal bid, but best source of power is dovish shift in global policy

See how retail traders are positioning in gold as it marks its high profile technical break and finds bulls making comparisons to the 2008-2011 run to records on the DailyFX Sentiment page.

Having run out of room to move, gold put in for a significant technical break to start this week. The precious metal was under speculative pressure that had intensified this past week as the a rising trend channel developed these past two months had again met and held a range of resistance at around 1,295 that had spelled the ceiling the markets were willing to traverse in 2017. The market had tested a break of this same level two weeks ago on the basis of risk aversion that was building behind a failed breakdown in US equities back on August 18th. Where that intraday run was fought back before that session's close, this market has proven its breach with Monday's progress and close.

The fundamental motivation is the question traders should be contemplating as that helps determine the conviction behind the drive which in turn translates into follow through. General risk aversion wasn't a strong source for this jump. While a traditional haven asset, we didn't register the same decline in confidence in global equities, high yield assets or rise in volatility products. All of those markets have proven sensitive to small fluctuations in speculative view. The Dollar's slide seems to be carrying a heavier responsibility. The commodity is primarily priced in the benchmark currency, and the ICE Index dropped to new lows to open the week. Yet, the breadth of the Greenback's weakness was not particular expansive considering few other pairs showed the push that EUR/USD experienced in the move above 1.1900.

It is not a stretch to suggest this gold move drew heavily from the speculative side. That can make for an effective spark, but it doesn't often draw a continue line of fuel to carry a trend. If the metal is to continue to favor the bulls for any significant momentum trades, a stronger motivation to push the market will be needed. Certainly an acute risk aversion or Dollar tumble can provide. However, the most effective motivation is that seen back in 2008 - 2011 when all the major currencies slid in tandem responding to the devaluation provided by the global downshift in monetary policy. That wind may be blowing, but will the market's come to that realization in a steady building wave? We look at the technical and fundamental picture of gold to evaluate its trade potential in this Quick Take video.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.