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Trade or Fade: The Dollar Drama

Trade or Fade: The Dollar Drama

James Stanley,

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In this webinar, we used price action to analyze macro markets after this week’s out-sized reversal in the U.S. Dollar.

- Shortly before beginning this webinar, the U.S. Dollar caught a quick gust of strength on news around the current situation around James Comey and President Trump. This was an aggressive counter-trend movement in a really short period of time, and as we discussed, this short-term observation should not lead into longer-term prognostications until more support of that theme is confirmed.

- We started off by looking at GBP/USD, which has finally put in a topside break of the vaulted 1.3000 psychological level. The recent bump of USD-strength helped to set another ‘higher low’ that could open the door to additional bullish entries. Support zones of interest can be found around 1.2829 and again at 1.2750-1.2755.

- We then moved over to GBP/JPY, which has put in a pretty bearish formation with continuation potential as price action has observed prior support and resistance levels. For more information behind this setup, please check out our article published earlier in the day entitled, GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: New Trend, New Direction, Same Levels.

- We then looked at USD/JPY, which has taken on a bearish tonality after the big zone of support from 111.61-112.40 was taken-out. The recent USD-pop brought price action right back to the under-side of support, and with resistance showing around 111.61, this could open the door to bearish continuation strategies with short-term outlooks in USD/JPY.

- We then moved over to EUR/JPY. Given that Euro and Yen were two of the stronger currencies of recent, this could be an interesting area for a fundamental play on the basis of expectations around each Central Bank. I like the topside of EUR/JPY, with eyes on the support zone from 121.61-121.95 and, just a bit lower we have a zone straddling the 120- psychological level.

- We then looked at EUR/USD, which has finally caught some element of a pullback. This feels like a bull trap to me, and I want to look for support a bit lower. I shared three zones that I’m following, around 1.1040, 1.1000 and 1.0933, respectively.

- We then looked at the S&P 500. Given that I have other ‘risk aversion’ setups that could play a bit more attractively, this is still buy the dip to me until we have more clear evidence that longer-term price action is rolling over.

- We then looked at Gold, which is one of those more attractive ‘risk aversion’ plays at the moment. For more information behind Gold, please check out our technical article from yesterday entitled, Gold Prices Break-Higher, Bullish Channel as Next Support.

- We then moved over to EUR/AUD as another attractive option for risk aversion scenarios. This was my ‘trade of the year’, and if you’d like the full setup, please click on this link to request our free trading guides.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for

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Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.