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In this webinar, we discussed a number of asset classes with primary focus on FX. The DXY is testing the underside of a broken trend-line which extends higher from last year. Not far above is a full gap-fill from the first round of the French elections in addition to a downtrend line from the March high. Right around 100 represents a big area of confluence. EURUSD is testing support levels, which if broken could lead to a gap-fill from the election. For now, it’s support until it’s not. GBPUSD is teetering a bit, but still maintains a decent-looking structure over the intermediate-term. Cable could fall back lower and still maintain the trend from March if selling doesn’t become overly aggressive. USDJPY looks poised to head towards 11500/50 before potentially finding a push-back by sellers.
GBPJPY and EURJPY are both coming off resistance, but it’s yet unclear how far they will decline; selling hasn’t been uber-aggressive so it could just be a situation of working off overbought conditions at resistance before eventually pushing on higher.
Gold and silver are experiencing what appears to only be relief bounces, and nothing more. We're watching how the market reacts should gold reach up to the 1240/50 vicinity, while silver has several points of interest to watch for selling pressure to pick back up. Lower prices, overall, are expected; it’s a matter of trying to find the sweet spot for trade entries.
Crude oil, strong bounce, but like precious metals it looks headed lower once it finishes up correcting. The 47 line wasn’t much of an issue, which now brings ~48 into play. Ideally, a retest and rejection takes shape even higher in the 49s at the underside of a year-long trend-line recently broken. The thinking on this end is that we will see the low-40s at some point in the not-too-distant future.
Global indices are strong, and there is no interest on this end in trying to fight them. The S&P 500 made a push lower yesterday but held solid support around 2080. As long as that level holds there appears to be no reason to be a seller. The DAX is finding support at the February top-side trend-line it recently crossed over. We’ll use that as a guide for now. The FTSE is at an interesting juncture, with the 2013 top-side trend-line currently being tested; it’s a line which has held the upside in check on several occasions since January.
For full technical considerations, please see the video above.
See our quarterly forecasts for FX, equity indices, and commodities to see where our team of analysts see markets heading for the remainder of Q2.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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