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Is the Fed Readying Markets for a September Hike?

Is the Fed Readying Markets for a September Hike?

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points

  • Fed commentary, US data in focus as rate hike speculation heats up
  • UK CPI and jobs data, BOE rate decision may pass with little fanfare
  • NZ Dollar may rise as 2Q GDP data trims RBNZ rate cut probability

Risk aversion struck financial markets at the start of the week as swelling Fed rate hike speculation sank shares and bolstered the anti-risk Japanese Yen while pressuring sentiment-sensitive commodity currencies. The US policy outlook remains in focus to start the week as traders wait to see if Governor Lael Brainard - arguably the most dovish among FOMC voters - will echo her colleagues' remarks and add to the emerging consensus favoring near-term tightening. US retail sales, inflation and consumer confidence data will be looked to for evidence supporting officials' rhetoric.

UK CPI and jobless claims reports as well as the Bank of England monetary policy announcement may prove to be non-events for the British Pound. The central bank offered a detailed view of their policy trajectory in testimony before Parliament's Treasury Select Committee last week, so it seems most of what is to emerge this week has had an ample opportunity to be priced in already.

An uptick in New Zealand GDP growth in the second quarter may reinforce the likelihood that the RBNZ is unlikely to resume stimulus expansion in the near term, boost the Kiwi Dollar. Australia's Employment report may offer a short-term lead for the Aussie but the RBA's entrenched wait-and-see posture may translate into the absence of lasting follow-through. Germany's ZEW survey of analyst confidence could offer an initial glimpse of cooling activity on the Continent on the back of uncertainty after the UK "Brexit" vote.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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