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Video: Will the Market Move on NFPs with Liquidity, Greece Hanging Over It?

Video: Will the Market Move on NFPs with Liquidity, Greece Hanging Over It?

2015-07-01 21:20:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Talking Points:

• The BLS's US labor report for June is due on an unusual Thursday ahead of the Independence Day holiday

• A Dollar response may be easier to generate as it feeds interest rate speculation - a capable driver

• Risk trends (drivers of equities and Yen crosses) may be more difficult to jump start with liquidity

Find out what scheduled event risk can threaten your trades or trigger volatility with the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

This month's NFPs will prove more tricky to trade than normal. Already a difficult indicator to get a handle on - between a focus on either the 'risk' response or interest rate timing - this update will come amid a liquidity drain and a very prominent distraction in the form of Greece. From the FX side, the lower boundary influence comes from any changes this update provides rate timing. A change in the unemployment rate and the data's inflation element (wage growth) will work to close the gap between the FOMC's and the market's timing for hikes. The Fed believes there will be two hikes this year and the market still doesn't fully price the first move until 2016. Far more difficult to stir will be the financial system's sentiment response - which could also spill over to the Greenback's have status. With US market's offline on Friday and market headlines drawing the focus to Greece's referendum vote Sunday, a greater surprise will be need to generate traction. We navigate what to look for in one of this week's key events in today's Strategy Video.

TIMING THE FIRST RATE HIKE ON THE FED'S 'DUAL MANDATE'

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