0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/lIJdiz4xSz https://t.co/QXaLbmFSjd
  • The anti-risk Japanese #Yen may rise versus currencies like the $AUD and $NZD on US-China tensions and fiscal stimulus woes which sank the Nasdaq 100 at the end of last week. Get your #currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/Kw0fYCHEcw https://t.co/jiQBPpzat3
  • The #Dollar is down than 3% year-to-date with the index responding to trend support at multi-year lows. Here are the levels that matter on the $DXY weekly technical chart. Get your #currencies update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/MVnF5VDoeN https://t.co/TP2k8u9sXN
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/ioGWvplvt7
  • Based on how US-China tensions and fiscal talks ended this past week, is the Japanese #Yen readying to push higher ahead? Check out the latest #JPY fundamental outlook here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/jpy/2020/08/10/Yen-May-Rise-as-Nasdaq-100-Falls-on-US-China-Tensions-Fiscal-Woes.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/2Km23bVAy2
  • Tech leading the S&P 500 towards record highs, however, China risks rise. FTSE 100 hovers in a lower range. Get your #equities update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/IJAABNhxjs https://t.co/ZZ6njsuf5O
  • We are heading into the peak of summer yet there are some unexpected trends in key plays. Will complacency or fundamental instability win out? My weekend video: '#Dollar, S&P 500, #Gold - The Potential for Trend, Reversal or Congestion' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/08/08/Dollar-SP-500-Gold---The-Potential-for-Trend-Reversal-or-Congestion-.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/7KoypvTwcL
  • What are some trading mistakes @nickcawley1 made during his career and what did he learn from them? Find out: https://t.co/40C8Sg5fM6
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:https://t.co/sR7HqpK8BI https://t.co/GZXAbZxL38
  • The Australian Dollar could be on the verge of a major breakout against the US #Dollar as $AUDUSD rates eye a close above pivotal chart resistance. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/1y4serFW7h https://t.co/OtqppN7fcp
Dollar Inches Higher Despite Powell, S&P 500 Despite FANG

Dollar Inches Higher Despite Powell, S&P 500 Despite FANG

2018-07-19 05:30:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Risk trends were largely positive Wednesday but pace and commitment remain uneven which should determine trade approach
  • Headlines about a possible light in the trade war tunnel and Powell's retained optimism may have helped the Dollar
  • Keep track of heavier charge in Pound's renewed Brexit slide, Oil's technical commitment, Gold's new lows and AUD's jobs data

What do the DailyFX Analysts expect from the Dollar, Euro, Equities, Oil and more through the 3Q 2018? Download forecasts for these assets and more with technical and fundamental insight from the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

It's Hard to Enjoy a Sentiment Move with Concern for a Bias

The past 48 hours has seen a significant jolt of volatility for some key assets with a moderate resolution to 'risk appetite' through all the action. With headlines touching trade wars, economic activity and US earnings; there was plenty to turn over the market's engine, but not enough fuel to travel any significant speculative distance. Political headlines in the United States following President Trump's critique of the country's NATO allies and voicing support for Russian President Vladimir Putin were still cycling through the news reel, but it still wasn't carrying the expected fear it would insinuate for global growth. That same apathy was still being applied to trade wars as well. Perhaps reports from President Trump that the US and EU were due to discuss trade on July 25th while the administration was also arranging bilateral talks with Mexico and Canada was look reassuring in this dull light where fear over stability never metabolizes. Yet, we have seen enough false dawn on negotiations to be truly optimistic. Further, there should be recognition at this stage that even if the tension does cool, it will only prevent crisis - not trigger conditions ripe for true opportunity. It is in this light, that we find US equity indices inching higher - while the tech-heavy Nasdaq holds off from a fresh record on Google's unprecedented fine from the EU. My interest in the risk spectrum rests with the Yen crosses due to my USDJPY exposure where an equally-weighted index refused new highs at a generally established range resistance.

Market Performance Chart

Dollar Inches Higher Despite Powell, S&P 500 Despite FANG

Dollar Injects Some Volatility but Powell Testimony Does Little to Green Light

If the deeper implications to trade wars aren't being investigated and risk appetite is holding out, the logic follows that the US Dollar would hold its own. The trade-weighted ICE's DXY Dollar Index jumped higher on the day, but retreated from its run before putting pressure on last month's high - and ostensibly disarming a head-and-shoulders pattern that it is close to completing. A broad market appreciation of the connections between a global trade war and the Dollar's risk for being at the center of it all as instigator has yet to be made. As such, the suggestion by President Trump that discussions are scheduled between US trade representatives and their counterparts from the EU, Canada and Mexico are more readily taken at face value. More readily absorbed into the speculative stream are monetary policy factors. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's second day of testimony in Congress (this time before the House) provided just as little tangible ground to alter the perceived advantage for the USD in its lonely perch at the top of the rate hierarchy. He did, however, voice concern about the risks from trade wars. It will be important to remember that for rate forecasting should trade conditions start to weigh on economic data. The docket thins out noticeably through the rest of this week, so either keep an eye open for non-scheduled catalysts or recalibrate expectations for Dollar trades.

US Dollar Currency Index Daily Chart

Dollar Inches Higher Despite Powell, S&P 500 Despite FANG

Pound Hitting More Brexit Cones, Folding Aussie and Kiwi Volatility Into Technicals

Where the Dollar is lacking for fundamental drive, the Pound seems to be have plenty - though that doesn't mean it is being reaped in support of the currency. The Pound suffered a second day of broad selling pressure Wednesday despite news that Prime Minister May had avoided a Parliament vote that could once again throw her leadership and the country's Brexit approach into array. Where this could have been interpreted as positive, the reality is the tally vary narrowly avoided a painful outcome. The Prime Minister reiterated her view that 'no deal' was better than a 'bad deal', which seems to ensure negotiations will be troubled whether internally or whenever it gets to the table with the EU. For their part, European Union officials are concerned enough that a 'no deal' outcome could result that they are reportedly considering an extension on the Amendment 50 for the UK. Is that really a silver lining? Meanwhile, the docket over the next 48 hours is notably light for meaningful scheduled releases. One stand out is the Australian Dollar which will take in the recent jobs figures and 2Q business sentiment - the former a frequent volatility spark and latter a strong cue for trade wars. We'll see if this offers enough of an influence to earn some material movement as we have seen from the Kiwi Dollar which is still on the move after the CPI update.

GBP Index Chart

Dollar Inches Higher Despite Powell, S&P 500 Despite FANG

Gold and Oil Defy Easy Fundamentals, Crypto Earns Dramatic Headlines

There are many examples where fundamentals are not following a clear path towards market movement, but there are few examples as easily registered as oil. Following a notable retreat through Monday, the commodity has a temporary floor to bounce from. We could look to the energy market headlines or try to draw a connection to the pricing instrument (Dollar), but this is still a market that continues to abide trading conditions more readily than fundamentals or even technicals - though the latter better conforms to conditions. It is exceedingly difficult to earn critical breaks - much less true trends - in these markets, and oil continues to exhibit these restraints readily. Gold seems to defy the range banner as it has extended its slide to fresh multi-month lows while taking notably support levels out along the way. Yet, this just illustrates the technical shortcomings as readily as the fundamentals. The metal is still in a broad range over the past five years and seems to earn modest support from the Dollar's stolid gains; but ultimately, it is best positioned for the most loaded scenario from a global risk perspective - should sentiment fall apart and expose the lack of capacity for central banks to put out the fire. Finally, cryptocurrencies are also back in the headlines - with more bombastic reference than they perhaps deserve. Bitcoin and crew had a strong two-day rally but there is hardly a trend to speak of in this drive. We discuss all of this and more in today's Trading Video.

Spot Gold/US Dollar Daily Chart

Dollar Inches Higher Despite Powell, S&P 500 Despite FANG

If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here.

--- Written by John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.