We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @carlquintanilla: Blame the Fed. Blame tariffs. Blame GM. Blame Boeing. But US industrial production has fallen from 5.4% growth in Sept…
  • 🇺🇸 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JAN 17), Actual: -405k Expected: N/A Previous: -2549k https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-23
  • RT @QuickTake: JUST IN: The U.S. State Department says to reconsider travel to China, raises its advisory for the country to level 3 amid u…
  • RT @EconguyRosie: Today's decline in the Conference Board LEI, the downward revisions and the negative YoY trend leaves the outlook with tw…
  • 👀 https://t.co/h50XsheVmy
  • $RUT $RTY $IWM | Russell 2000 off its Jan 17 peak by roughly 2.25% #Stocks #StockMarket #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis https://t.co/05gcfNQj40
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.47% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.07% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.14% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.27% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.42% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/JAI7Vvb2et
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.26% Wall Street: -0.37% France 40: -0.47% Germany 30: -0.66% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/W0Akx48sao
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JAN 17) due at 16:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: -2549k https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-23
  • from wedge resistance to wedge support $EURJPY https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/01/18/Euro-Weekly-Forecast-EURUSD-Range-EURJPY-Wedge-Ahead-of-ECB.html https://t.co/bAGbxFR0M4
Dollar Recovers from Trump's Concerns, S&P 500 Breaks Just before Holiday

Dollar Recovers from Trump's Concerns, S&P 500 Breaks Just before Holiday

2017-04-13 23:29:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • The Dollar recovered from its slide following US President Trump's concern about its high level
  • With volatility measures rising across asset classes, the S&P 500 put in for another cut in a technical break
  • Promoting a full Dollar or risk trend into the holiday liquidity drain will prove difficult

See the DailyFX Analysts' 2Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Another jolt of volatility for the Dollar settled quickly as the market's slipped into holiday trading conditions. US President Trump's directed-market views from Wednesday sent the Greenback sliding as the remarks about an expensive currency were initially interpreted as risk that policy may quickly follow the observation. Yet, when an executive order didn't cross his desk the subsequent session, the currency settled. The Dollar faces risk from a number of possible sources: the Fed's tightening plans being jettisoned; risk trends undermining its carry appeal; and protectionism backlash among other considerations. Yet, few of these will be truly developed with the market's offline for the bank holiday-extended weekend.

Where the US currency was able to find its balance before any major levels or broken or trends threatened, the S&P 500 made a move that juxtaposed with a sense of provocation. The equity index - perhaps one of the most stubborn 'risk' measures - slipped below a trendline support that traces back five months. That said, a number of short-term levels have fallen for this benchmark over the past weeks without a full commitment to the bearish throes. Further, other sentiment-driven assets slipped on their own without rousing even as remarkable a technical picture as the US index. This does not speak to full conviction. Alternatively, volatility measures add further evidence that the markets are increasingly prone to trouble in the future. Measures like the VIX (S&P 500-based) have surged across the asset spectrum. What's more, the 'volatility of volatility' (VVIX) figure shows a heightened state of concern.

As tuned-in as the markets are to threats, the holiday conditions we immediately find ourselves in and the limited high-profile events next week will not make it easy to spot any imminent threats on the horizon. Next week has event risk like China's 1Q GDP, global PMIs and the ECB's survey of professional forecasters among other events; but these hardly seem the sparks guaranteed to turn over a self-cycling engine of fear. In these circumstances, ranges and measured moves still stand out. That offers an interesting shape to the Aussie Dollar which has rallied back into ranges at varying paces for the crosses (aggressive like AUD/USD to restrained like AUD/NZD). Pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD with well-established boundaries will find more favorable backing. And, the strong climb from Gold will face a mighty resistance from a multi-year trendline. We discuss all of this in this holiday Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.