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Dollar Recovers from Trump's Concerns, S&P 500 Breaks Just before Holiday

Dollar Recovers from Trump's Concerns, S&P 500 Breaks Just before Holiday

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • The Dollar recovered from its slide following US President Trump's concern about its high level
  • With volatility measures rising across asset classes, the S&P 500 put in for another cut in a technical break
  • Promoting a full Dollar or risk trend into the holiday liquidity drain will prove difficult

See the DailyFX Analysts' 2Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Another jolt of volatility for the Dollar settled quickly as the market's slipped into holiday trading conditions. US President Trump's directed-market views from Wednesday sent the Greenback sliding as the remarks about an expensive currency were initially interpreted as risk that policy may quickly follow the observation. Yet, when an executive order didn't cross his desk the subsequent session, the currency settled. The Dollar faces risk from a number of possible sources: the Fed's tightening plans being jettisoned; risk trends undermining its carry appeal; and protectionism backlash among other considerations. Yet, few of these will be truly developed with the market's offline for the bank holiday-extended weekend.

Where the US currency was able to find its balance before any major levels or broken or trends threatened, the S&P 500 made a move that juxtaposed with a sense of provocation. The equity index - perhaps one of the most stubborn 'risk' measures - slipped below a trendline support that traces back five months. That said, a number of short-term levels have fallen for this benchmark over the past weeks without a full commitment to the bearish throes. Further, other sentiment-driven assets slipped on their own without rousing even as remarkable a technical picture as the US index. This does not speak to full conviction. Alternatively, volatility measures add further evidence that the markets are increasingly prone to trouble in the future. Measures like the VIX (S&P 500-based) have surged across the asset spectrum. What's more, the 'volatility of volatility' (VVIX) figure shows a heightened state of concern.

As tuned-in as the markets are to threats, the holiday conditions we immediately find ourselves in and the limited high-profile events next week will not make it easy to spot any imminent threats on the horizon. Next week has event risk like China's 1Q GDP, global PMIs and the ECB's survey of professional forecasters among other events; but these hardly seem the sparks guaranteed to turn over a self-cycling engine of fear. In these circumstances, ranges and measured moves still stand out. That offers an interesting shape to the Aussie Dollar which has rallied back into ranges at varying paces for the crosses (aggressive like AUD/USD to restrained like AUD/NZD). Pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD with well-established boundaries will find more favorable backing. And, the strong climb from Gold will face a mighty resistance from a multi-year trendline. We discuss all of this in this holiday Trading Video.

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