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Video: Stalled Dollar Breakout Defuses EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD

Video: Stalled Dollar Breakout Defuses EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Talking Points:

  • USDollar's breakout earlier this week has stalled and failed to gain broad conviction necessary for trend
  • With risk appetite already struggling for traction, the SPX posted biggest drop in 2 weeks and a rebound for VIX
  • A G-20 meeting and PMIs are top event risk Friday, but their systemic influence is abstract

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page. See the DailyFX Analysts' 3Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Extended periods of congestion can build considerable anticipation of explosive transitions to breakouts and even trends. When USDollar cleared resistance on its three-week range, traders were ready for the move to translate into opportunities on pairs like EUR/USD and USD/CAD long-entrenched in congestion or even USD/JPY as it mounted an impressive reversal from multi-year lows. Yet, without a strong fundamental motivation, the technical event was not substantive enough to spur a self-sustaining run. A decisive spark like next week's FOMC decision or US 2Q GPD may be necessary to engage conviction.

Meanwhile, the remarkable push for risk trends championed by US equities finally slipped. The momentum for indexes like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average was already cool, but the retreat Thursday along with the jump from the VIX volatility index from a two-year low offered a distinct jolt to an ingrained sense of complacency with this market coast. A true shift in sentiment towards active risk aversion could generate a range of remarkable opportunities but such a remarkable shift in view (and momentum) just before the weekend is unlikely. That means pairs like the USD/JPY and Yen crosses may not be as appealing as their technicals might imply.

For event risk, the final 24 hours carries high-profile and headline-worthy items. The PMI figures from Japan, Eurozone and US offer good and timely proxy to official GDP releases. The meeting of G20 finances ministers and central bank deputy governors offers one of the few opportunities to discuss and respond to systemic risks like currency wars, protectionism and post-Brexit uncertainty. That said, the growth data rarely alters trend and the resistance to coordinated solutions to global problems remains disconcertingly high. Fireworks through the closing hours will be difficult to kindle and those awaiting conviction have bigger motivators to look forward to next week. We weigh realistic expectations in today's Trading Video.

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