News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Optimism $GBP https://t.co/UjSo3Dpthr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.44%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 70.05%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/n7ePyLk3EB
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 BCB Copom Meeting Minutes due at 11:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-22
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.13% Gold: -0.34% Silver: -1.88% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/1fgVHj1F6Z
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.12% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.17% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.19% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/2CA80kFhl2
  • Coming up at half past the hour. Do join me if you can, using the link below https://t.co/RAiCJNLuSC
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.18% FTSE 100: 0.49% France 40: 0.40% US 500: 0.22% Wall Street: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Jb7LZOruhP
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/3Wp3IOFbCl
  • Join @MartinSEssex 's #webinar at 6:30 AM ET/10:30 AM GMT to learn more about trading #sentiment Register here: https://t.co/XUUPRdY06p https://t.co/xPg6iYu5XF
  • USD/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their most net-long USD/JPY since Mar 08 when USD/JPY traded near 103.93. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to USD/JPY weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/svVkPPHfph
Video: Stalled Dollar Breakout Defuses EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD

Video: Stalled Dollar Breakout Defuses EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD

2016-07-22 02:10:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • USDollar's breakout earlier this week has stalled and failed to gain broad conviction necessary for trend
  • With risk appetite already struggling for traction, the SPX posted biggest drop in 2 weeks and a rebound for VIX
  • A G-20 meeting and PMIs are top event risk Friday, but their systemic influence is abstract

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the SSI readings on DailyFX's sentiment page. See the DailyFX Analysts' 3Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold in the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Extended periods of congestion can build considerable anticipation of explosive transitions to breakouts and even trends. When USDollar cleared resistance on its three-week range, traders were ready for the move to translate into opportunities on pairs like EUR/USD and USD/CAD long-entrenched in congestion or even USD/JPY as it mounted an impressive reversal from multi-year lows. Yet, without a strong fundamental motivation, the technical event was not substantive enough to spur a self-sustaining run. A decisive spark like next week's FOMC decision or US 2Q GPD may be necessary to engage conviction.

Meanwhile, the remarkable push for risk trends championed by US equities finally slipped. The momentum for indexes like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average was already cool, but the retreat Thursday along with the jump from the VIX volatility index from a two-year low offered a distinct jolt to an ingrained sense of complacency with this market coast. A true shift in sentiment towards active risk aversion could generate a range of remarkable opportunities but such a remarkable shift in view (and momentum) just before the weekend is unlikely. That means pairs like the USD/JPY and Yen crosses may not be as appealing as their technicals might imply.

For event risk, the final 24 hours carries high-profile and headline-worthy items. The PMI figures from Japan, Eurozone and US offer good and timely proxy to official GDP releases. The meeting of G20 finances ministers and central bank deputy governors offers one of the few opportunities to discuss and respond to systemic risks like currency wars, protectionism and post-Brexit uncertainty. That said, the growth data rarely alters trend and the resistance to coordinated solutions to global problems remains disconcertingly high. Fireworks through the closing hours will be difficult to kindle and those awaiting conviction have bigger motivators to look forward to next week. We weigh realistic expectations in today's Trading Video.

To receive John’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES