Talking Points:
• The FOMC walked a tight rope in its policy decision such that the market didn't see a clear view
• Yet, where the decision, statement and eco forecasts disarmed; rate forecasts speaks to the USD
• Meanwhile, the pressure gauge is close to breaking for the Euro on Greece
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EURUSD was teed up for the Fed. All they had to do was given enough clarity on a hawkish or dovish lean to break a tight wedge. Instead, we trickled through. This doesn't fit the bill of a break as there is little conviction to follow with momentum on the other side of the boundary. In the FOMC event this past session, the policy authority tried to balance its decisions and views such that there was little for speculators to trip on. Where there was some very clear concern/interest for the medium-term view though, investors decided to fall back on complacency...that may not end well. Outside of timing rates, UK data has been sending the Pound soaring, New Zealand event risk has driven the Kiwi Dollar lower, and the pressure on the Euro as the Greek drama drags on is beyond any other current fundamental risk. We discuss all of this in today's Trading Video.
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